'Monthly inflation: As predicted' is perhaps the most positive macro headline we've seen in a while.
Furthermore, this completely aligns with Bitcoin's narrow price range just below the all-time high supply level.
To clarify the context, there are still 35 days until the FOMC meeting, and the July CPI not only matched the June figures but also slightly exceeded the market forecast of 2.8%. This is a positive factor for the rate cut scenario in September.
The question is whether this favorable macro context can trigger Bitcoin to break out of its consolidation phase and move into a new price discovery phase.
Bitcoin's direction depends on September.
According to history, September has always been an unpredictable month for Bitcoin. Only 4 out of the last 12 September months closed higher, while the number of decreasing months dominated. This performance further adds weight to the market situation this month.
But this year, everything is not just dependent on history. September will set the conditions for Q4. Notably, this is the biggest bullish period for risk assets, thanks to expectations that quantitative easing will pump new liquidity into the market.
That’s when the lower-than-expected July CPI started to take effect. Simply put, inflation is still under control, providing more 'ammo' for rate cut bets. The market is currently pricing in a 94.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September FOMC.
In fact, this is a significant jump from 85% before the CPI and much higher than 57.4% a month ago. The market position is clearly high, reflecting rate cut bets being pushed up early ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Meanwhile, market sentiment is further bolstered by Donald Trump's comments that tariffs do not cause inflation. Along with a 273% increase in tariff money in July to $25 billion, this further boosts the market's rate cut trend.
Overall, low CPI alongside record tariff money is creating a favorable risk context for September. If the Fed really acts, can Bitcoin leverage this liquidity flow to move into Q4?
Bitcoin in the last quarter of the year.
On average, Bitcoin records a profit of 85.42% in Q4, confirming it as the most positive quarter compared to Q1–3 combined.
Technically, if Bitcoin holds support in the $120,000–$125,000 range in Q3, this creates a favorable structural foundation for a potential high breakout in Q4.
In terms of modeling, using a more 'cautious' forecast for Q4 with a 30–40% increase from Bitcoin's current level of $120,000. The year-end target range is estimated to be between $156,000–$168,000.
Ultimately, everything now depends heavily on the developments in September.
The market is in a 'wait and see' state, but with the low CPI figures, liquidity flows are leaning towards the upside, turning Bitcoin's current correction phase into a potential favorable point for significant gains in Q4.