Ethereum (ETH) is currently hovering below the $4,600 threshold as the market digests the hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report, revealing soaring inflation levels that exceed investor expectations. Despite recently undergoing a strong correction from its highest peaks in years, most traders remain confident that ETH will soon conquer the $5,000 mark before the end of 2025.
Polymarket users are betting on ETH reaching $5,000 with a 64% probability.
The outlook for a bullish ETH market this year remains highly optimistic, thanks to the resonance from technical signals, strong interest from institutions, and positive on-chain data.
On the Polymarket platform, traders are placing a 65% probability on the scenario of ETH reaching $5,000 before the end of August, while the likelihood of hitting $4,800 even rises to 90%. Additionally, they are also betting with probabilities of 31% and 18% that this altcoin will respectively exceed $5,400 and $5,800 before the month ends.
The statistics table also recorded scenarios of prices dropping deep down to $2,000, indicating that the market's forecast range is quite wide.
Notably, Polymarket users assess that ETH has a 87% chance of setting a new historical peak before August 31.
This optimism is not limited to one platform: on the prediction exchange Kalshi, the probability of ETH breaking its record before September stands at 92%, reflecting strong expectations that ETH/USD will soon write a new chapter in history right in August.
Price levels to watch
According to a recent report by Bitcoin Magazine, traders have outlined key 'boundaries' that, if breached, could shake ETH's bullish trend.
Prominent among these is the area around the record weekly closing level of $4,600 and the psychological threshold of $4,000.
In the latest update, renowned analyst Rekt Capital emphasized that ETH 'needs to turn $4,631 into a new support zone to unlock the price discovery phase.' He warned on X: 'The sooner we reclaim this level, the better. If we fail, the price could be rejected and fall back to the weekly CME GAP at $4,000, even sweeping down to $3,750.'
In a similarly cautious view, anonymous analyst Block_Diversity believes that ETH adjusting to the demand zone of $4,000–$4,400 is a completely feasible scenario 'before a new acceleration wave appears.'
Additionally, market data indicates that the 'Active Realized Price' range of +1 standard deviation around $4,700 is a noteworthy threshold, as this was once a zone that triggered strong selling pressure in previous cycles.