The crypto market is never short of smart strategies; what it lacks is the resolve to adhere to simple rules. Someone used an 'anti-smart' method, starting from 80,000, going through three cycles of bull and bear markets to ultimately achieve 30 million in profits. This method does not involve complex indicators, does not guess tops and bottoms, and even actively gives up 90% of opportunities, yet maintains over 90% win rate over five years. The core secret lies in using mechanical rules to resist human greed and applying mathematical certainty to hedge market uncertainty.
One, the five-part allocation method: Equip the account with 'bulletproof glass'.
At the beginning of 2017, when entering the crypto market, 60,000 capital was evenly divided into five parts, with only 12,000 used for each trade. This seemingly conservative allocation strategy demonstrated remarkable resilience during the 2018 bear market—after five consecutive stop-losses, the account still had 54,000 remaining, while investors who operated fully during the same period averaged a loss of 72%.
The survival philosophy of multi-accounting.
2% loss threshold: A 10% stop-loss on a single trade corresponds to 2% of total capital (20% position × 10% loss), which means that even facing 10 consecutive black swan events, the account can still retain 82% of its principal. During the LUNA crash in 2022, accounts using this strategy only lost 3.8%, while the industry average loss was 43%.
The compound magic of adding positions on profit: Only start adding positions when a single trade profits over 5%, increasing the position by 5% each time. During the process of Bitcoin rising from 30,000 to 69,000 in 2021, through four rounds of adding positions, the return on the initial 20% position was amplified from 130% to 287%, with the added position carrying a 'floating stop-loss' (exit on a 3% pullback).
Dynamic balance of the capital pool: 30% of each profit will be transferred to a 'safety pool' to cover potential consecutive losses. By 2024, the accumulated amount in this safety pool reached 8.6 million, enough to withstand 430 consecutive stop-losses, completely eliminating the fear of 'losing all capital'.
Dividing assets is not a restriction on profit, but a way to build a 'forever armed' combat system. Those who pursue 'doubling in one go' often get eliminated in the first extreme market.
Two, single-pattern filtering: Let the market 'call the shots' itself.
'No trades without patterns' is the core discipline of this system. Only participate in market conditions that simultaneously satisfy three criteria:
The 3-day, 30-day, 84-day, and 120-day moving averages are in a bullish arrangement (four-line flowering).
Price breaks through the highest point of the last 30 days of fluctuations, and the trading volume increases by more than 50% compared to the average of the previous 5 days.
MACD indicator crosses above the 0 axis after breaking through the 0 axis, with red bars expanding for 3 consecutive days.
The capital consensus behind patterns.
The trend strength of the four-line resonance: When the four moving averages are rising simultaneously, it indicates consensus among short, medium, and long-term funds. Data shows that in market conditions meeting this criterion, 87% will form a sustained trend lasting over 30 days, with an average gain of 48%, while random entries yield an average return of only 7%.
The authenticity of volume breakthroughs: Since 2020, Bitcoin has seen the 'four-line flowering + volume breakthrough' pattern 42 times, with 38 instances resulting in subsequent increases of over 20%. The failure rate of volume shrinkage breakthroughs is as high as 71%. The ETH breakthrough in October 2023 is a typical case—after a volume breakthrough above $2000, it rose to $2800 within 30 days.
The lagging protection of MACD: Requires MACD to break through the 0 axis before entering the market. Although this may miss 15% of the previous gains, it can filter out 62% of false breakthroughs. Comparatively, the entry point after this signal appears is 12 days later than the average entry point of 'bottom-fishers', but the win rate increases from 39% to 81%.
At the end of 2023, operating with a capital of 200,000, relying on this pattern filtering, I only traded 11 times throughout the year, achieving a profit of 20 million, with two breakthroughs of SOL contributing 6.8 million in profits.
Three, three-dimensional backtesting: Let historical data 'test for poison'.
Each rule of this strategy has been subjected to 'rigorous scrutiny' using comprehensive market data from 2017 to 2024. The backtesting process strictly follows three principles:
Iron rules of backtesting.
Full-cycle coverage: Not only testing bull markets (2017, 2021), but also focusing on verifying performances in bear markets (2018, 2022) and volatile markets (2019, 2023). Results show that even in the 2022 bear market, the strategy still achieved a positive return of 3.2%, far exceeding the industry's average performance of -65%.
Complete cost restoration: The backtest includes 0.1% transaction fees, 0.3% slippage loss, and liquidity costs during extreme market conditions. Calculations show that these costs would reduce theoretical returns by 20%, avoiding 'paper wealth'.
Anti-optimization design: All parameters (moving average periods, stop-loss ratios, etc.) are solidified in the 2017-2019 data, and data after 2020 is used only for verification, avoiding the curve-fitting trap of 'customizing strategies for historical trends'.
TradingView backtesting reports show that this strategy has an annualized Sharpe ratio of 3.8 on Bitcoin (industry average 1.2), with a maximum drawdown of only 12.7%, far exceeding the performance of mainstream quantitative funds.
Four, anti-human execution: Trade like a machine.
Behind the 'fishing and fitness' is a systematic shielding of human weaknesses. The execution discipline of this system includes:
The art of staying out of the market: In 2023, there were 287 days without qualifying patterns, maintaining a cash position during this time, avoiding 93% of ineffective trades. Data shows that 90% of the fluctuations in the crypto market are noise; staying out of the market is itself a form of profit.
The mechanical nature of stop-loss: Set automatic stop-loss instructions, and issue stop-loss and position opening orders simultaneously, eliminating the hesitation of 'let's see again'. On May 19, 2021, when Bitcoin plummeted 30%, the automatic stop-loss system closed the position decisively at a 10% drop, incurring only a 2% loss, while manual stop-loss investors averaged a 27% loss.
The ritual of reviewing: Set aside one hour every Sunday night for review, focusing on recording cases of 'meeting the pattern yet failing' (accounting for 10%), forming a (failure case handbook). The new rule added in 2024 to 'avoid trading in the 3 days before the Fed interest rate hike' came from reviewing 20 trading days on interest rate hike days.
The leaps from 200,000 to 20 million are not due to seizing opportunities but rather rejecting 99% of temptations. When the community is discussing 'hundredfold coins', being able to adhere to a single pattern strategy is inherently the most counterintuitive ability.
Five, survival mantras for beginners.
The key to replicating this method lies in understanding the 'simple logic' behind it:
Replace judgment with rules: Write the entry conditions on a sticky note and stick it to the right side of the screen. If it doesn't meet the criteria, do not proceed decisively. In 2023, a student suffered losses due to missing a moving average condition and forced a position, leading to the habit of 'checking off each condition'.
Use spare cash to counter volatility: The funds invested must meet the 'not used for three years' standard. During the bear market in 2018, 62% of investors were 'forced to cut losses due to urgent need for money', while those who adhered to this rule all survived to the next bull market.
Use 'fool's logs' to accumulate experience: Record three questions for each trade: 'Pattern conformity', 'Volume changes', 'Was it an impulsive entry?'. After sticking to it for 3 months, sensitivity to market conditions will naturally increase.
The path from 80,000 to 30 million proves: the true 'ever-profitable' in the crypto world is not the ability to predict the market but the ability to not be eliminated by it. When you can control your hands with simple rules, the market will naturally deliver profits.
Blindly acting alone will never bring opportunities. Follow me, and I will guide you to explore tenfold potential coins! Top-tier resources!
