Pantera Capital achieved remarkable accuracy with its Bitcoin price forecast made in November 2022. The firm predicted Bitcoin would reach $117,482 by August 11, 2025, while the actual closing price was over $119,000 on that exact day.
Their forecast was made when Bitcoin was trading near the cycle low of $16,000. Since then, the asset has increased over 660% from the 2022 low, reinforcing the four-year halving cycle theory despite increasing skepticism.
ETF funds now control 7.1% of the total Bitcoin supply with 1.491 million Bitcoin held, while public and private companies hold an additional 1.36 million Bitcoin. The unprecedented participation of these institutions has led some analysts to question traditional models.
Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard argues that Bitcoin halving is no longer significant since 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined. The supply now comes from buying stakes from original holders rather than new issuance.
The Bitcoin community remains divided on the impact of institutional disruption. The current price action indicates that cycles are still important despite changes in market structure as traditional models continue to play out.
