✅ Ethereum outperforms the market: +41% in a month, Bitcoin near $119k — is it time to buy?
ETH has risen nearly 41% in a month, 59% in three months, and 14% in a week; BTC remains near $119k. Experts note the dominance of the 'institutional story' of Ethereum: ETF instruments, DeFi expansion, and infrastructure narratives support demand, while Bitcoin's role as 'digital gold' stabilizes base demand. Opinions diverge: cautious voices warn of overheating risk after the rally, while optimists speak of ETH's 'undervalued' potential compared to BTC. For price formation, this means higher elasticity to positive catalysts (regulation, inflows into ETP/ETF) and sensitivity to macro surprises (CPI/Fed rates).
❌ Senate Democrats are alarmed by the new crypto bill: risk of 'financial collapse'
Following the Republicans' promotion of the new RFIA-2025 bill, Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee stated that the document might weaken the SEC's oversight in favor of the less resourceful CFTC and create 'windows' for fraud. A key point is the category of 'ancillary assets', which allows selling tokens outside traditional securities rules. In the market, this increases regulatory uncertainty and may heighten volatility in the short term — especially in altcoins that rely on issuers' 'disclosures'. For BTC/ETH, the signal is rather neutral-negative: while the political tug-of-war continues, large funds may reduce risk exposure, awaiting clarity in the rules.
❌ Terra founder Do Kwon admitted guilt in the US — the court's final act of the '$40 billion collapse'
Do Kwon admitted guilt on two counts of fraud regarding TerraUSD investors and agreed to forfeit over $19 million. The prosecution points to deception regarding UST's stability and manipulation of the 'peg' mechanism. For the market, this episode marks the resolution of the key story of the 'crypto winter' of 2022, which undermined trust in algorithmic stablecoins and served as a prologue to a series of bankruptcies. In the short term, the news lowers the 'legal risk premium' in the stablecoin sector and supports the narrative of 'better regulated, fully backed assets', which is positive for the ETH ecosystem and the market as a whole but negative for high-risk experimental models.
❌ Inflation pressures: BTC retracts from $123k, XRP and SOL adjusted — awaiting CPI
Amid July inflation data (core CPI ~3.1% year-on-year), Bitcoin fell to ~$119.2k after an attempt to breach historical highs. ETH held with a gain of ~2.4%, while SOL and XRP declined. Risk factor — a likely delay in the expected rate cuts by the Fed: higher real yields support the dollar and reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets, including crypto. For traders, key levels are $123k as resistance for BTC and $4k for ETH; breakthroughs amid 'softer' macro data could reactivate demand, but a negative inflation surprise could sharply increase volatility and trigger profit-taking.
❌ WSJ: 'The Trump family's recipe for crypto wealth' — a political factor in price dynamics
WSJ describes how the political and business connections of the new administration affect the crypto sector: from supporting stablecoin reform to information drivers in favor of 'digital assets in pensions'. For the market, this adds 'policy-beta': news from the White House and Congress directly impacts prices, especially as they approach ATH. Although the fundamental effect (real investments and institutional procedures) unfolds gradually, information waves can amplify impulses, particularly in ETF flows and crypto stocks. Investors should consider the political calendar and rhetoric while adjusting risk management.
✅ Circle: the first report after the listing — loss, but revenue up 53% year-on-year
The USDC issuer released quarterly results: a loss, but revenue +53% year-on-year. For the market, this is a dual signal: on one hand, the scaling of the stablecoin business and the growth of operational income support trust in 'regulated' stables; on the other hand, profitability remains a challenge amid competition and reserve requirements. If investors interpret the report as evidence of growing 'safe infrastructure', this is positive for the ETH ecosystem (where many stablecoins are concentrated) and overall market liquidity. However, in the short term, shares/tokens related to issuers may react volatilely to the margin profile.
✅ Bullish goes public: valuation ~$5 billion and crypto on the balance sheet — another 'public anchor'
Crypto exchange Bullish (owner of CoinDesk) is preparing for a listing on the NYSE under the ticker BLSH. The placement range has been raised to $32–33 per share, valuing the company at approximately $5 billion. Demand is fueled by BTC's proximity to ATH and expectations of a profit in Q2 of $109.1 million, despite a loss in Q1. The balance sheet holds about $2 billion in crypto (mostly BTC). Public status and a focus on institutional services enhance the legitimacy of the segment. For the market, this is positive: another 'exchange' provider of liquidity and infrastructure, sensitive to increases in turnover and the prices of underlying assets.
✅ Analysts: +10% in BTC could trigger short liquidations of $18 billion — fuel for impulse
Derivatives traders note the 'tension' of bear positions: another BTC jump of ~10% could 'evaporate' up to $18 billion in shorts. This is a classic recipe for a 'gamma impulse': breaking key levels activates a cascade of liquidations, strengthening the upward movement. Combined with macro catalysts (CPI/Fed) or political news (401(k) pensions, stablecoins), this could quickly return BTC to historical highs and beyond. The risk in the opposite case is a 'squeeze' of buyers in the event of a false breakout and a pullback to volume concentration zones.
✅ Scenario of $150k for BTC, ETH above $8,500 if ratios are maintained
Link: TradingView (NewsBTC)
Market review shows: if BTC reaches $150k in this cycle, then ETH, maintaining historical capitalization/price ratios, could be in the range of $5,370–7,400, and in an optimistic scenario — above $8,500. The current ETH rally is explained by a combination of institutional inflows (ETF/ETP), a revival in DeFi, and a better 'use case thesis'. For investors, this is an indicative, not guaranteed scenario; however, the very emergence of highly probable 'upper ranges' fuels demand for options and creates new levels for take-profit/stop-loss.
✅ London: ETPs on Bitcoin and Ethereum are added back to the official list — the institutional channel is widening
LSE has published an update to the official list (Official List): among others — WisdomTree Physical Bitcoin Digital Securities (12,000 units) and WisdomTree Physical Ethereum Digital Securities (38,000 units), as well as other crypto-related instruments. This means increased access for European and British institutions to regulated products based on crypto assets, enhancing liquidity and reducing entry barriers. In the short term, the effect is moderate, but combined with inflows into ETP/ETF, it creates a stable support for prices during correction periods, as it increases the pool of long-term 'passive' demand.
