The current ETH trend is not a bull market frenzy, but a 'fishing plate' carefully designed by the main force. The method is very clichéd, but someone falls for it every time.
1. How does the main force play? Three steps.
Step 1: Violent surge, no pullback.
From 3000 to over 4000, there was almost no pullback, making those who missed out anxious.
Objective: Force retail investors to FOMO and chase highs, creating panic of 'missing out if not on the bus'.
Step 2: Sudden crash, clean out those chasing highs.
Wait for retail investors to collectively rush in, followed by a rapid pullback of 20%-30%, instantly blowing up leveraged bulls.
Example: After ETH surged to 4800 in 2021, it plummeted to 3200 within a month. How many people sold at a loss?
Step 3: Gradual bull recovery, shake off the uncertain.
After the crash, the main force will accumulate at low levels, and then slowly push it back up, making those who sold at a loss regret it.
Final target: Above 5000 USD, but the process will definitely be bloody.
2. Why does the main force play like this?
Lower holding costs: Sell at high levels, buy back at low levels, profit from the price difference.
Clear leverage: Blow up long contracts to reduce subsequent upward resistance.
Create market sentiment: Let retail investors be repeatedly cut in fear and greed.
Remember: The main force is not here to do charity, every bit of their rise is to sell at higher levels.
3. Correct response strategy for retail investors.
Don't chase highs, wait for a pullback.
If ETH really wants to reach 5000, it will definitely not go without looking back.
Ideal bottom buying range: If it pulls back 30%, it corresponds to 3500-3800 USD (observe volume support).
Don't get too leveraged.
The main force prefers to explode high-leverage contracts, be cautious with over 5x leverage.
Spot is the safest, contracts should only be used for short-term hedging.
Focus on key signals.
Increased volume stagnation: High-level sideways trading + huge trading volume may be a signal to sell.
Exchange ETH inventory: If Binance/Coinbase's ETH reserves suddenly increase, be cautious of selling pressure.
4. The overall direction is still bullish, but the process will be bloody.
In the long term, factors like ETH's ETF, deflation, and staking support the bull market.
In the short term, the main force will definitely wash out, making the uncertain get off.
Recommendation:
Divide positions into three parts, do not chase above 4000, wait to buy in batches at 3500-3800.
If it directly surges to 5000, I would rather miss out than be the last one to catch the falling knife.
The last sentence.
In the crypto world, patience is more important than technique.
The main force makes money from retail investors through 'quick rises and slow declines'.
Retail investors make money from the main force by 'being able to wait'.
Don't be led by emotions, buy when it drops, sell when it rises, that is the way to survive.
People are more important than anything! If you are still wandering in confusion, why not take a look at @crypto Guang-ge to help you seize every wave in the bull market.