1. The truth about support levels: the main force's 'cost defense line' rather than the 'market bottom'.

The so-called 'support level' (such as ETH's $2200 and $2000) is not a bottom formed spontaneously by the market, but rather the lowest selling price set by the main force. If the price falls below this point, the main force's profits will be squeezed or even lead to losses, so they will temporarily protect the market, creating the illusion of 'effective support'.

The signal significance of breaking the support level.

1. False breakout to induce short selling: The main force may temporarily break below the support level (for example, dropping from $2200 to $2180), triggering panic selling among retail investors, and then quickly pulling back, completing the operation of accumulating at low prices and distributing at high prices.

2. True breakout final characteristics: If the support level is effectively broken (with three consecutive 4-hour K-lines closing below), and trading volume increases by more than 30%, it indicates that the main force has sold off more than 90%, and subsequent declines are merely market inertia.

2. The 'three-stage script' of the main force's selling: unloading during the rise, wrapping up during the fall.

The main force will not directly smash the market to offload, but will complete the chip transfer in three stages:

1. Raise while selling (inducing the collection of bag holders).

Using a small amount of funds (5%-10%) to raise the price, creating the illusion of a 'continued main uptrend'.

Every price increase is accompanied by increased trading volume (retail investors entering), while corrections see reduced volume (creating the illusion that the main force is locking in positions).

In reality, at each peak, the main force reduces 3%-5% of their positions.

2. Continued selling during consolidation (completing chip transfer in oscillation).

Prices oscillate at high levels (such as $3200-$3400), seemingly 'building momentum for a breakout', but in reality, the main force continues to distribute.

Characteristics: Frequent appearances of upper and lower shadows, smashing the market when reaching the upper boundary, and protecting the market when it falls to the lower boundary, causing retail investors to keep bottom-fishing.

3. Selling while dropping (using bottom-fishing psychology to clear out stock).

When the main force has less than 20% of remaining chips, they begin to sell off slowly.

Retail investors mistakenly believe 'a pullback is an opportunity', bottom-fishing at support levels, precisely catching the last chips from the main force.

Ultimately, once the main force has cleared their positions, the market will experience a cliff-like decline.

3. Breaking the main force's selling through the 'three observation rules'.

To identify whether ETH is being offloaded, one must not only look at price fluctuations but also pay attention to:

1. Divergence between trading volume and price.

When prices rise, trading volume increases but the rate of increase slows, indicating that the main force is distributing at high levels.

During consolidation, trading volume fluctuates, which is the main force creating an active illusion to attract bag holders.

2. Changes in chip concentration.

If addresses holding 100,000 to 1 million ETH decrease, while addresses holding less than 10,000 ETH increase, it indicates that the main force is transferring chips to retail investors.

3. Continuity of capital flow.

During the main force's selling phase, funds show 'impulse inflow and continuous outflow', with cumulative outflow far exceeding inflow.

Conclusion: Jump out of the rise and fall trap, and understand the capital game.

Every increase and consolidation of ETH may signal the main force's selling. The real breakthrough method is:

  • During the rise, be wary of 'selling signals within bullish candles' (such as abnormally increased trading volume).

  • During consolidation, pay attention to 'chip transfer during oscillation' (such as frequent upper and lower shadows).

  • During declines, distinguish between 'washing out and clearing stock' (such as whether the support level has been effectively broken).

Only by seeing through the main force's selling script can one avoid becoming the last bag holder during ETH's fluctuations.


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