$XLM near 0.444 – Will bulls reclaim the retracement zone or face deeper consolidation?

1) Yesterday’s Recap – August 12, 2025

1H Timeframe

Yesterday, $XLM traded within a moderately narrow range, with several attempts to approach local resistance. Momentum remained muted, but candle structure suggested patient positioning by buyers.

  • RSI hovered around 50–55 (neutral-to-bullish).

  • MACD flat, with no clear trend accelerator.

  • Volume moderate — no side showed a decisive advantage.

4H Timeframe

Defense of the 0.431–0.434 zone maintained a short-term bullish structure. Local volume spikes on upside moves suggested buyer interest during breakouts, although without sustained follow-through.

  • RSI ~56 (slight bullish edge).

  • MACD positive but flat.

  • Market in a “spring loading” phase.

Fibonacci (swing on Aug 12: 0.4383 → 0.4560):

  • 38.2%: 0.4475

  • 50.0%: 0.4471

  • 61.8%: 0.4467

  • 1.618 ext: 0.4918

2) Current Situation – August 13, 2025

Today’s $XLM price is hovering around 0.444–0.445 (latest ~0.4444), exactly where yesterday’s bullish momentum stalled. Intraday action is testing the mid-range of yesterday’s structure without a decisive breakout.

1H Timeframe (now)

  • RSI ~52–54 – mild bullish bias.

  • MACD above zero but with no histogram expansion.

  • Volume: lower than during last pushes toward 0.455; the market needs a catalyst to move higher.

4H Timeframe (context)

Higher lows remain intact above 0.431–0.434.

  • RSI ~55–57 (moderate strength).

  • MACD positive; sideways-to-bullish trend.

  • 4H Volume: limited — supports slow accumulation, but not yet confirming a breakout.

Today’s swing (low → high: 0.43150 → 0.45471):

  • 38.2%: 0.4458

  • 50.0%: 0.4431

  • 61.8%: 0.4404

  • 1.618 ext: 0.4691

(Levels calculated from yesterday’s low to today’s high; 0.443–0.446 is today’s “decision zone” intraday).

3) Volume Analysis (What it says about move quality)

  • Selling volume without price progress on dips to 0.432–0.435 suggests sellers are not pushing aggressively — lack of strong supply pressure.

  • Low-volume upticks have so far stalled below 0.455 — indicating that a clear volume increase (e.g., > 20-period average on 1H) will be needed for a breakout.

  • Key observation: watch for a 1H candle close above 0.455–0.456 with significantly higher volume — a filter to avoid false breakouts.

4) Outlook (conditions and paths)

  • Bullish Scenario (continuation):
    Holding >0.4458 (38.2% from today’s swing) and breaking 0.455–0.456 with rising volume opens the path to 0.462, then 0.469 (1.618 ext) and potentially 0.475–0.480 if momentum sustains.

  • Bearish Scenario (return to range middle):
    Losing 0.4404 (61.8%) with strong selling pressure increases the chance of a test at 0.435, and if momentum accelerates — 0.4315 (daily low). Below 0.431, the short-term bullish structure breaks.

5) LONG Setup (trend-follow with volume filter)

  • Entry: after 1H close > 0.456 (clear breakout)

  • Stop-Loss: 0.4458 (38.2% from today’s swing)

  • TP1: 0.4620 (first intraday resistance)

  • TP2: 0.4690 (Fibonacci 1.618 – main target)

  • TP3: 0.4750 (overshoot / prior supply zone)

Rationale: enter “behind strength,” SL under demand zone; staggered TPs allow partial profit before the 1.618 extension.

6) SHORT Setup (mean-reversion / demand loss)

  • Entry: after 0.4404 break and 1H close < 0.440

  • Stop-Loss: 0.4458 (reclaiming 38.2% invalidates)

  • TP1: 0.4350

  • TP2: 0.4315 (daily low)

  • TP3: 0.4280 (extension into prior Aug 12 demand)

Rationale: scenario for a drop back to range bottom; requires confirmation candle + volume to avoid “fake breaks.”

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