Recently, the heat in the crypto market has almost been monopolized by Ethereum. As the ETH price steadily stands above $4600, just a step away from the historical high, many investors suddenly realize: this wave of market may be stronger than anticipated. As an analyst who has tracked the crypto market for many years, today I will break down the core logic of this strong rebound of ETH, as well as the new changes worth noting in the stablecoin ecosystem.
Institutions are voting with real money: ETH ETFs raised $1 billion in a single day, and the signal is more important than the price.
The hardest support for this round of ETH increase is not the enthusiasm of retail investors, but the 'bombardment' of institutional funds. The latest data shows that the daily inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs reached a historical record of $1 billion, with a total inflow of $8.2 billion so far this year. This figure may seem less than Bitcoin ETFs' $19.4 billion, but the key is the 'proportion'—$8.2 billion accounts for 1.5% of ETH's total market value, while Bitcoin ETFs' $19.4 billion only accounts for 0.8% of its market value.
This means that the degree of institutional funding bias towards ETH is almost double that of Bitcoin. More notably, listed companies are taking concrete actions to position themselves: SharpLink has appointed Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin as chairman, holding over 360,000 ETH; BitMine has transitioned from Bitcoin mining to an Ethereum treasury, holding 120,000 ETH; Bit Digital has accumulated over 120,000 ETH. Since June, institutional holdings of ETH have increased by a total of 25 million, which is definitely not short-term speculation, but a strategic bet on ETH's long-term value.
In the crypto market, institutional funds often have a sharper sense than retail investors. When traditional capital incorporates ETH into its core asset allocation, it reflects a recognition of Ethereum's ecological value—whether it is the sustained prosperity of DeFi or the future demand for tokenized assets, ETH's status as the cornerstone of the ecosystem is being revalued.
The technical indicators have issued a clear bullish signal: $4400 has become the key dividing line, with a target aimed at the historical high.
Having funds alone is not enough; the technical aspects make this round of increase more convincing. From the trend, ETH started from the support level of $4150, breaking through $4600 steadily, and firmly standing above the 100-hour moving average and the key bullish trend line. The current market consensus is clear: $4400 is the short-term dividing line of strength and weakness. As long as this level holds, the bullish momentum will not diminish.
The technical indicators are also strong: MACD continues to expand in the bullish area, showing no signs of a top divergence; RSI remains above 50, in a strong zone, and has not yet touched the overbought warning line. At this pace, once it breaks through the resistance range of $4650-$4750, hitting the historical high of $4800 will be a high-probability event. Some analysts even believe that if funds continue to flow in, ETH may challenge the $5000 mark this month.
However, it should be noted: the closer we get to the historical high, the greater the volatility may become. Short-term investors need to be wary of the risk of a pullback after a surge, while medium to long-term holders should pay more attention to whether the trend continues— as long as institutional funds do not withdraw on a large scale, technical adjustments are more likely to be an opportunity to enter rather than a signal of a trend reversal.
The stablecoin ecosystem is surging with undercurrents: USDC rules Ethereum, USDT shifts to TRON, and the new compliant player USD1 makes its debut.
ETH's bull market has never fought alone; the changes in the stablecoin ecosystem also hold hidden secrets. The latest data shows that the total market value of global stablecoins has exceeded $271.1 billion, reaching a historic high, indicating that the market has ample 'bullets' to prepare for subsequent trends.
The most obvious differentiation is that on the Ethereum chain, USDC has officially surpassed USDT to become the largest stablecoin. The background is the deep binding of USDC to the DeFi ecosystem, with a daily average transfer amount exceeding $20 billion on Ethereum, while USDT only ranges from $12 to $15 billion in the same period. USDC has clear advantages: transparent reserve proof, compliant regulatory background, and ongoing ecosystem integration promoted by Circle, making it the first choice for institutions and professional investors.
But USDT has not been idle either, shifting its focus to chains like TRON and BSC. On the TRON network, thanks to major exchanges like Binance and Bybit promoting it, the number of USDT-TRC20 transactions exceeded 1 million in a week, reaching a new multi-month high. This indicates that retail trading demand remains strong, and TRON's low transaction fee advantage has become USDT's 'second growth curve.'
What is even more worth noting is the debut of the new face USD1. This compliant stablecoin launched in the U.S. received $23 million in funding support right after its launch on August 6. Although its current scale is small, the 'fully regulated' label gives it a unique advantage in a market with tightening compliance requirements. As various countries tighten regulations on stablecoins, such compliant tokens may become a new choice for institutional funds, and their future potential should not be underestimated.
Conclusion: With three favorable factors combined, is the ETH bull market just beginning?
In summary, Ethereum is currently in a triple favorable cycle of 'institutional funds + technical trends + ecological prosperity': institutions express their long-term confidence through ETFs and direct holdings, technical breakthroughs at key resistance levels open up upward space, and the differentiation and innovation of the stablecoin ecosystem inject vitality into the entire market.
For investors, it is more important to focus on the 'continuity of trends' rather than short-term fluctuations. If ETH can hold above $4600, breaking the historical high will just be a matter of time; and the changes in the stablecoin ecosystem prompt us to pay attention to opportunities on different chains— Ethereum's DeFi and institutional scenarios, TRON's retail trading scenarios, all may hide the next wave of dividends.
Finally, the old saying still holds: the hotter the market, the more one must remain rational. Proper position management, refraining from chasing after rises and selling after falls, is the key to truly making money in this bull market.
Do you think ETH can break through $5000? Which stablecoin do you favor more? Feel free to leave comments for discussion, and friends who like and follow Xiaowan, let's track the upcoming market together!