In 2017, buying ETH for $100 was enough to exchange for three cups of Starbucks; on this day in 2025, the same ETH can exchange for a round-trip ticket to Europe. But what are the chances that its value could double again, turning into a Tesla (10,000 USD)? As someone who has been watching ETH for eight years, I'll provide some solid analysis today.
Currently, ETH is fluctuating around $4,200, a very delicate position: just a step away from the historical high of $4,800, yet still has more than double the space to reach $10,000. The current market resembles a glass of iced cola; the bull market bubble is starting to rise, but it hasn't reached the point of completely bursting yet. Institutional funds are quietly flowing in: last week, ETH fund inflows reached a record $268 million, the number of Grayscale holding addresses increased by 40% in three months, and even Tesla's financial report contains traces of ETH.
The three major engines driving this surge:
Trump's GENIUS plan is equivalent to giving the crypto market a green light, with the US Treasury hoarding digital assets, and ETH, as the cornerstone of DeFi, directly included in the 'strategic reserve' list. The SEC's Project Crypto feels like a reassurance to the market; those who keep chanting 'non-compliant' now have to recalculate their accounts.
Technical upgrades have skyrocketed ETH's competitiveness. After the Dencun upgrade, gas fees dropped by 60%, and the daily trading volume on Layer 2 sidechains like Optimism even surpassed that of the mainnet. Now even Wall Street stocks are starting to migrate to the ETH chain; with RWA moving forward, the value of ETH as a settlement layer needs to be reassessed.
Global liquidity is like a floodgate opening. With expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting rates, the total market cap of stablecoins has surpassed one trillion, with 70% of it settled in the ETH ecosystem. It's like putting a spring under the ETH price; with just a little push, it can bounce back up.
But aside from the good news, these few time bombs could explode at any moment:
The SEC's regulation is never a final word; if they suddenly tighten the ETF rules, institutional funds will withdraw faster than anyone else. Historically, ETH has halved more times than I've eaten hotpot. Now at $4,200, it has reached the mid-cycle ceiling of a bull market; if BTC drops by 5%, ETH is likely to drop by 10% as well.
Emerging stars like Solana are also not to be underestimated; recently, the DeFi trading volume on the Solana chain increased by 30%. If users truly vote with their feet, ETH's first-mover advantage may become a burden.
Is it possible to touch $10,000 by the end of this year? The probability is at most 25%. It's not impossible, but it requires three conditions to be met: BTC stabilizing at $120,000, the Federal Reserve cutting rates by another 50 basis points, and no significant regulatory negative news. It's like guessing all three World Cup upsets at once—very difficult.
But if we extend the timeline to 2030, the probability could rise to 75%. Just think about it: when central banks around the world settle cross-border payments using ETH, and when NFTs become everyone's digital ID, the value of this thing is beyond what we can currently imagine.
In my own portfolio, ETH accounts for 40%: half is in staking, and half is in Layer 2 arbitrage. My advice is simple: don't think about hitting $10,000 in one go; invest $100 weekly, buy more if it drops to $3,500, and take profits when it rises to $6,000.
Lastly, let me ask: what traditional industry do you think will be first disrupted when ETH breaks $10,000?
