$ETH 4878 Dollar Threshold: Breakthrough or Decline?
This week, Ethereum approaches the historical high of $4878 set in 2021, and the market's long and short game enters a critical phase.
1. Core Factors Supporting the Breakthrough
Over 30% of the total supply of ETH is staked and locked, with the circulating supply continuously tightening, forming a "reluctance to sell" pattern.
The total locked value in DeFi and the activity of NFT trading are steadily increasing, enhancing ecological practicality.
Institutions are continuously increasing their positions through spot ETFs, with a net inflow of over $6.7 billion this year, leading to an increase in the concentration of quality chips.
2. Strong Technical Characteristics
Continuous breakthroughs of resistance levels at $4300 and $4500, with trading volume simultaneously expanding.
Prices remain above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, with short-term moving averages in a bullish arrangement.
No obvious top divergence signals have appeared, and the RSI overbought status shows that bullish momentum is still being released.
2. Potential Risk Points for a Pullback
1. Significant Pressure at Key Levels
$4868, as a historical high from three years ago, has a lot of trapped and profit-taking positions.
Retail investors' enthusiasm for chasing prices is rising, with social media discussions reaching a six-month peak, and the proportion of short-term speculative funds is increasing.
2. Uncertainty in the External Environment
The SEC's approval progress for the ETH spot ETF still holds variables, and policy risks have not been fully released.
Expectations for a shift in global central bank monetary policies may affect risk asset allocation preferences.
3. Conclusion: Decision Window Under Long-Short Balance
Currently, Ethereum is in a balanced state of "strong fundamental support + key resistance suppression":
Breakthrough Probability: If institutional funds continue to enter and trading volume remains high, a historic breakthrough is expected this week.
Pullback Risk: If a volume decline occurs when encountering resistance at $4868, it may trigger a technical pullback of 10%-15%.
Close attention should be paid to changes in trading volume and ETF approval dynamics to avoid blind operations at key levels—after confirming a breakthrough, one can follow the trend, while during a pullback, the defense strength of the $4300 support level should be observed.
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