In 2017, you could buy three cups of Starbucks with 100 dollars worth of ETH; on this day in 2025, the same ETH could buy a round-trip ticket to Europe. But how likely is it to turn into a Tesla worth 10000 dollars? As someone who has been watching ETH for eight years, I’m here to share something real with you today.
Currently, ETH is stuck around 4200 dollars, a very delicate position, just a step away from the historical high of 4800 dollars, yet still has more than double the space to reach 10000 dollars. The market is like a cup of cola with ice; the bull market bubble is fizzing, but it hasn't burst yet. Institutional funds are quietly flowing in: last week, ETH fund inflows reached a record 268 million dollars, and the number of Grayscale's holding addresses has increased by 40% in three months, even Tesla's financial report has hints of ETH.
There are three engines driving this rise:
First, Trump's GENIUS Act is like giving the crypto market a green light. The U.S. Treasury is buying up digital assets, with ETH as the foundation of DeFi, directly included in the 'strategic reserve' list. The SEC's Project Crypto feels more like a reassurance to the market; those who have been shouting 'non-compliance' all day need to reassess their calculations.
Second, the technological upgrade is making ETH increasingly powerful. After the Dencun upgrade, gas fees dropped by 60%, and Layer 2 sidechains like Optimism are processing more transactions daily than the mainnet. Now, even Wall Street stocks are starting to move onto the ETH chain; the RWA chess game has come alive, and the valuation of ETH's settlement layer needs to be reassessed.
Third, global liquidity is like a floodgate that has been opened. With expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, the total market value of stablecoins has surpassed a trillion dollars, with 70% of it sitting in the ETH ecosystem. It's like putting a spring in ETH's price; with just a little push, it can bounce up.
But don't just look at the positives; these few risks could explode at any time:
The SEC's regulation has never been a one-time decision. If it suddenly tightens ETF rules, institutional funds will withdraw faster than anyone else. Historically, ETH has been halved more times than I have eaten hot pot. Now, at 4200 dollars, it has already reached the ceiling of the mid-bull market. If BTC drops by 5%, ETH is likely to fall by 10%.
Emerging stars like Solana are not to be underestimated. Recently, DeFi trading volume on the Solana chain increased by 30% month-on-month. If users really vote with their feet, ETH's first-mover advantage might become a burden.
Is it likely to touch 10000 dollars by the end of this year? The probability is at most 25%. It's not impossible, but it has to meet three conditions: BTC stabilizing at 120000 dollars, the Federal Reserve cutting rates by another 50 basis points, and no major regulatory downside. It's like trying to guess three World Cup upsets at once; it's too difficult.
But if we extend the timeline to 2030, the probability could reach 75%. Just think, when central banks around the world start using ETH for cross-border payments, and NFTs become everyone's digital ID, the value of this thing is not something we can imagine today.
In my own portfolio, ETH accounts for 40%, half in staking and half in Layer 2 arbitrage. My advice to you is simple: don't think about shooting straight to 10000 dollars. Invest 100 dollars weekly, buy more if it drops to 3500, and take some profit when it rises to 6000.
Finally, let me ask: when ETH breaks 10000 dollars, which traditional industry do you think will be the first to be disrupted?
