Some brothers asked if $ETH can reach 10,000 by the end of the year. The low point at the beginning of the year has risen quite a bit, but it's still far from 10,000.

Currently, DeFi locking is high, stablecoin liquidity is sufficient, L2 transaction fees have decreased, institutions are buying a lot, staking has also reached a historic high, and supply is still shrinking. Last week, inflows into ETH-related products broke records, and there are many real assets being tokenized on-chain, showing strong demand.

On the policy front, 2025 is quite crucial. Trump in the U.S. initiated the GENIUS Act for digital asset reserves, the SEC launched Project Crypto, and regulations are gradually becoming clearer. ETH ETFs have also been approved, and money is starting to flow in. EU regulations have stabilized, and places like Singapore are quite friendly towards Web3. Overall, the policy atmosphere is much better than before.

On the positive side, institutional and ETF inflows are significant, and by the end of the year, inflows are expected to exceed 10 billion. The technological upgrades have resolved transaction fees, and the integration of L2 and real assets solidifies ETH's position. If the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and maintain liquidity, risk assets will rise. Many big names in the community are claiming that ETH can reach 10,000, but the probability of reaching 10,000 is almost nonexistent.

Of course, there are risks. Regulatory uncertainties still exist, and any sudden policy change could lead to a market crash. The market is very volatile, and ETH is approaching its historical highs. If BTC corrects, ETH will not escape either. There are also competitors, such as Solana, which will also compete for market share. If staking unlocks increase, there may be significant selling pressure.

Speaking of probability, I think the chance of hitting 10,000 by the end of this year is roughly 20%-30%, but it depends on a bull market without major dips!