Solana (SOL) recorded a slight decline to $173, losing $15 million, before quickly recovering — this indicates the strength of the buying side.
However, historical trends have indicated that when SOL breaks through resistance levels, it often faces quick capitulation. Could the current sell-off from whales be a precursor to such a significant change?
Strong selling pressure from whales is increasing
More than ten days have passed since August, and Solana's relative weakness is quite apparent. SOL has been unable to surpass the $200 threshold, while Ethereum (ETH) has seen a robust increase of 15.75%.
This gap becomes even more pronounced in quarterly charts, as ETH delivers an impressive return on investment (ROI) of 72% compared to SOL's 12.8%. In fact, whales are beginning to sell off, transferring over 226,000 SOL to exchanges.
In particular, one whale sold 71% of their assets in less than two days, from $24 million down to $6.8 million. This amounts to $17.2 million SOL sold, indicating significant selling pressure from a single investor.
Technically, this move comes as SOL drops below $185, creating a solid supply wall. Furthermore, with the average selling price of whales around $177, SOL's recent 4% drop is not just a random price decline.
The crucial question is whether this distribution signals a weakening of bullish momentum, making $200 a tough target at this time, or if it is just a short-term pause before SOL can continue its upward trend.
Alameda unstake SOL
Overall, Solana's weekly decline of 2.35% seems minor compared to other assets, possibly due to broader market risk shifts rather than specific factors related to Solana.
However, there are deeper factors at play. A wallet from Alameda Research withdrew $35 million SOL, a sum that has been locked since late 2020 when it was worth $350,000 — equivalent to a 100-fold increase.
Nevertheless, SOL's net position remains positive, supporting price consolidation above $170. This is a notable difference from previous risk phases, when net positions turned negative and capitulation sentiment began to emerge.
The $170 level is a critical boundary
This puts SOL at a crucial inflection point. The buying depth has not collapsed yet, but selling pressure is clearly increasing. The synchronization between the sell-off of large whales and withdrawal activity indicates coordinated distribution.
If the $170 level cannot sustain as support, prepare for increased downward risk, making Solana a necessary watchpoint for short-term fluctuations.
