When the Bollinger Bands contract and meets a dovish Federal Reserve, the moment of change for ETH is like a fully drawn bowstring — either it will soar into the sky or deeply retrace!

Interpretation of key signals on the market (30-minute level)

Price positioning battle:
ETH's current price of 4593 is exactly riding on the middle Bollinger Band at 4590; this position is like walking on a tightrope — up 5 points is the short-term resistance at 4619, the upper Bollinger Band, and down 30 points is the death line at 4560, the lower Bollinger Band. The morning surge to 4640 followed by a drop indicates that there are indeed short positions buried at the 4660 resistance level.

MACD harbors secrets:
Although the indicators show "bullish strength surging", upon closer inspection, the MACD bars are still green (-12.3), and DIF and DEA have not crossed. It's like a car's dashboard showing a malfunction light while pressing the accelerator; beware of the "bull trap".

Volume reveals the truth:
Trading volume has shrunk to 20,000 coins, while the daily average is over 40,000. The OBV indicator is flat, indicating that large funds are waiting for the US stock market to open tonight. Remember: volume-less rebounds are just tricks!

Analysis of news resonance

Expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut:
The US Treasury Secretary keeps saying, "Possible rate cut in June" and "September should cut by 50 basis points". Such news would typically cause a surge, but ETH only moved by 0.3%! This indicates the market is waiting for solid evidence. Refer to December 2024, when ETH fell by 8% before the rate cut expectations materialized! (History will repeat itself but won't simply duplicate.)

Transmission effect of the US stock market:
The Nasdaq rose 1.4% last night! (MISSING) Chinese concept stocks went crazy, and as usual, Asian funds will follow in the afternoon at 13:00. But be cautious: the correlation between ETH and the US stock market has dropped from 0.8 to 0.6; don’t blindly replicate the patterns.

Dashing Monkey's trading strategy

Short-term today:

Aggressive strategy: Open a long position at the current price of 4590, stop loss at 4565, target 4620 (take profit after earning 30 points).

Conservative strategy: Place a long position at 4560, stop loss below 4530, and take profit in batches at 4600 during rebounds.

Medium-term 3-day cycle:
Key observation at the 4510 support level, which is both the weekly MA30 and the starting point of the rise on August 5. If it retraces without breaking, buy spot with closed eyes; if it breaks down on increased volume, directly look at 4360.

Currently, $ETH is like a compressed spring; the Federal Reserve's rate cut is the igniter, and the US stock market funds are the booster — after the US CPI data was released at 20:30 last night, we will either witness a violent surge or suffer a massacre of longs. Follow me for real-time alerts on market changes! #ETH突破4400