Market Analysis

• Bitcoin (BTC): On August 12, Bitcoin reached a maximum of 122,335 and a minimum of 118,050, showing large fluctuations. On the daily chart, it formed a double-top pattern, indicating significant pressure above. The four-hour chart shows signs of selling, with a bearish signal for a daily double-top. Currently, attention should be paid to the resistance in the range of 119,000-121,000, especially the resistance line near 120,000. If it cannot break through, it may continue to correct. The support level below is at 118,000; if broken, watch for support near 116,500.

• Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum has performed relatively strongly, with the support level near 4150 on August 12 not being broken. The four-hour level shows a volatile market. If it cannot break through or stabilize at 4400, it may form a top signal on both the daily and four-hour levels. In the short term, focus on the support range of 3600-3800, with particular attention on the support near 4150 during the day. If this support is broken, the defensive position is in the range of 3900-4000.

• Altcoins: Currently, altcoins are generally weak, lacking popular narratives that drive strong liquidity into the market, the trend is similar to the phase when altcoins began to decline on July 21. Defense needs to be strengthened, and it is not advisable to chase prices blindly. However, as the US dollar index weakens, if the market trend improves, altcoins in sectors like AI, MEME, and RWA may welcome opportunities.

• Macroeconomic Impact: After the July CPI data was released, the market's expectation for a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 80%. This may prompt institutions and large players to consider Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others as investment choices, driving prices up. Additionally, Trump's signing of an executive order allowing cryptocurrencies in 401(k) retirement accounts, although the policy needs to be reviewed by the Department of Labor, is viewed positively by the market for its potential long-term capital inflow, which is a long-term benefit for the crypto space.

Operational Strategy

• Short-term Operations: After the CPI good news lands, the market may correct. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, short-term investors can buy on dips when prices approach key support levels, setting stop-loss orders. For example, Bitcoin near 118,000 and Ethereum near 4150; if the support levels are broken, then stop-loss and exit promptly.

• Long-term Operations: If the Fed's rate cut cycle is confirmed, Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to see significant increases, and long-term investors can firmly hold their positions. The target price for Bitcoin can be set at $150,000, while Ethereum can be aimed at $10,000, but attention should be paid to potential market fluctuations caused by the release of the August non-farm payroll and PCE data.

• Altcoin Operations: Those with no holdings should patiently wait for clear popular narratives and signals of capital inflow in the market before considering entry. Holders need to closely monitor market trends, reduce positions at highs, control their holdings, implement risk control, and avoid blindly going all-in.

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