Let the chart do the talking. ETH is like a restless child right now, bouncing back and forth in the large range of 4550 to 4640. This morning, the price was firmly around 4596, with a 'high pressure line' at 4640 above, which is a golden resistance level that has failed multiple times, like being slapped back; below is the floor support at 4550, like an airbag that bounces back every time it falls here. The委比 (buy-sell ratio) shows a slight increase in buying pressure (+0.73%), but this is unreliable in a volatile market, so don't treat it as a wind vane. Overall, the MACD and KDJ indicators are stuck together with no clear signals, meaning the bulls and bears are still playing Taiji, neither willing to let go. The candlestick chart is filled with red and green, all small fluctuations, basically saying it's 'sideways', waiting for a fuse to ignite — this is today's core rhythm: resistance at the top is 4640, not breaking, while support at the bottom is 4550, not falling; range-bound oscillation is the main theme.
As Lao Niu, I have to give my personal opinion: a drop to 4550 for ETH is highly probable, but if it falls to 4480, that's a problem. Why do I think this way? Let's analyze a bit deeper. Fibonacci percentages (like 23.6%, 38.2%) don't have specific price points, but the 4550 support has been verified multiple times as a 'lifeline'. The MACD line is sticky near the zero axis, and the trading volume is average (the image doesn't show volume, but there's actually a lack of volume support in trading), indicating insufficient momentum. For the bulls to rise, they need to break through 4640 with volume; otherwise, wait for a bear market rebound. My experience tells me that market sentiment is currently 'lukewarm', and BTC isn't making big moves, with no catalysts for ETH itself. It's easy to drop to 4550 — breaking 4600 would create a gap, and panic selling would surge, bringing 4550 in a blink. But 4480 is further away; it depends on the 50% Fibonacci level or lower support, like BTC rallying or negative news hitting (like regulatory news), which is less than a 50% chance.
Remember the mantra that Lao Niu often says: In a volatile market, support levels are 'paper tigers'; once they really break, it collapses; resistance levels are 'blocking tigers'; if it doesn't go up, it goes down. So, us retail investors shouldn't go all in; set stop-loss points, and if 4550 breaks, reduce positions to protect profits. If it can bounce back at 4550, that would be a good opportunity to add positions, but for 4480, we have to rely on black swan events, which is less likely — I bet a pack of spicy strips that it will probably stop around 4550.
Brothers, do you think ETH will break below 4550 and plunge into a big drop? Or will it steadily climb up to 4700? Share your predictions in the comments! Follow Lao Niu for daily in-depth analysis without any nonsense! #ETH突破4400 #ETH走势分析
