【BlackRock Research Report: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September, and there is even a reasonable basis for a 50 basis point cut】Golden Finance reported that for several weeks, investors have been continuously pouring into swap contracts, options, and directly going long on U.S. Treasuries, betting that slowing inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs in the coming months. This view was initially validated on Tuesday: after the release of July inflation data, short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, while swap contract traders raised the probability of a rate cut in September to 90%. More notably, market bets on a rate cut exceeding 25 basis points in September are also heating up. On that day, traders added about $2 million in premiums to positions related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which will profit from a larger-than-expected rate cut. "Today's (Tuesday's) inflation data, while slightly stronger than in previous months, is still far below the levels of concern for many people," said Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, in the report. "Therefore, we expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in September, and there is even a reasonable basis for a 50 basis point cut." In addition, Goldman Sachs' trading and research team had previously stated that the market is underestimating the possibility of a 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve in September. (Golden Ten)