Current status:
Current Price: XRP is currently trading around $3.24, after an 8% decline over the last four sessions from a peak of $3.66 in July 2025.
Market Cap: Approximately $193.53 billion, with a high daily trading volume of $9.16 billion, reflecting continued institutional interest despite the recent correction.
Market Dynamics: XRP saw a strong 65% surge in July, boosted by Ripple's settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but is now facing selling pressure due to profit-taking.
Technical analysis:
Technical IndicatorsRelative Strength Index (RSI): On the 30-minute time frame: 41.59, indicating mild downward pressure with relative stability.
On the daily chart: It is approaching the oversold zone, which may indicate a potential bullish reversal if demand increases.
Moving Averages: EMA20 (4-hours): At $3.1911, the price is trading below this level, indicating short-term resistance.
EMA50 (4-hour): at $3.1570.
EMA100 (4-hour): at $3.1204.
EMA200 (4-hours): At $3.0067, the price is above the EMA100 and EMA200, supporting the long-term uptrend.
EMA50 (daily): at $2.89, EMA200 (daily): at $2.28, which reinforces support at these levels.
Supertrend (4-hours): Remains bullish above $3.0933, reinforcing the importance of this level as crucial support.
Money Flow Index (MFI): At 31.59 on the 4-hour frame, it indicates quiet flows but with signs of accumulation by large investors.
Bollinger Bands (4-hours): The upper band is at $3.3317, the middle band is at $3.2202, and the lower band is at $3.1088. The price is currently close to the lower band, indicating a potential rebound.
Technical Patterns: A symmetrical triangle is forming on the 30-minute frame, with a rising support line and a falling resistance line, indicating imminent pressure that could lead to an upside or downside breakout.
A descending triangle on the 4-hour timeframe, with horizontal support at $3.00 and downward-sloping resistance, increases the downside risk if $3.20 is not broken.
Support and resistance levels:
Support: $3.13-$3.15: A strong support level that has been successfully tested several times, supported by high trading volume.
$3.00: A psychological level and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, it is considered the last line of defense for buyers.
$2.89: 50-day EMA, minor support.
$2.78: 50% Fibonacci level, close to the August low of $2.66.
Resistance: $3.18-$3.20: Immediate resistance, as the price is facing selling pressure at this level.
$3.27-$3.31: A major resistance level (23.6% Fibonacci), where the price was recently rejected.
$3.60-3.66: July consolidation area, an upside target if current resistance is broken.
$3.84: All-time high (2018), psychological and technical barrier.
Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Analysis XRP is currently in the fourth (corrective) wave of the Elliott Wave, with expectations of entering the fifth (impulsive) wave that could push the price towards $3.92 or higher.
Fibonacci levels indicate upside targets at $3.3075 (0.618 Fibonacci) and $3.4653 (0.786 Fibonacci), with support at $3.0860 (0.382 Fibonacci).
Key influencing factors:
Ripple settles its five-year case with the SEC, resulting in a 208% increase in trading volume to $12.4 billion, boosting market confidence.
Monthly Token Issuance: The issuance of 1 billion XRP tokens from escrow on August 1st caused temporary uncertainty, but Ripple's clarification that it was a routine procedure eased concerns.
Whale Accumulation: XRP whales (wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion tokens) added 900 million tokens worth $2.88 billion in 48 hours, indicating the confidence of large investors.
ETFs: 85% approval for XRP ETFs by 2025, despite BlackRock's denial of plans, supports long-term optimism.
Institutional Adoption: Ripple's continued partnerships with global financial institutions (such as Santander and Standard Chartered) are driving demand for XRP in cross-border payments.
Predictions:
Price in 2025 Bullish Scenario: If XRP maintains support above $3.00 and breaks $3.18-3.20 with strong trading volume, it could target $3.60-3.66 in the coming weeks, with a potential target of $4.80 by the end of 2025.
Bearish scenario:
If XRP fails to hold the support at $3.00, it could drop to $2.89 or $2.78, with a potential deeper decline to $2.66 if the selling pressure continues.
A break of the $2.66 level may open the way for a test of $2.40 (61.8% Fibonacci) or even $2.28 (EMA200).
Conservative forecast: Machine learning models predict an average price of $3.12 by August 31, 2025, while other sources (such as Changelly) predict an average price of $2.43 by December 2025.
Tips for traders:
Entry Points: Buy: Upon testing the support between $3.10-3.15 with confirmation of high trading volume, or upon breaking $3.18-3.20 with a 4-hour candle closing above this level.
Sell/Take Profit: At resistance of $3.27-3.31 if the price shows signs of rejection, or at $3.60 if an upside breakout occurs.
Risk Management: Place stop-loss orders below $3.00 to avoid losses in case of a crash.
Diversify your portfolio to reduce exposure to XRP volatility.
What to watch for:
Support holds at $3.13-3.15 during profit-taking waves.
Breaking $3.18-3.20 to confirm bullish momentum.
Developments related to new Ripple ETFs and partnerships.
General market influences, especially the movement of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Conclusion:
XRP is at a critical juncture in August 2025, trading at $3.14 with strong support at $3.13-3.15 and immediate resistance at $3.18-3.20. Technical analysis shows a long-term uptrend supported by indicators such as the Supertrend and the EMA200, but short-term downward pressure due to profit-taking could lead to a test of $3.00. Forecasts range from $3.12 (conservative) to $13 (optimistic) by the end of 2025, supported by the settlement of the SEC case and increased institutional adoption. Traders are advised to closely monitor support and resistance levels and employ risk management strategies.
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