Pantera Capital successfully predicted Bitcoin's price in 2022 with a deep understanding of the Bitcoin halving cycle, demonstrating the impact of asset supply plans on valuation, even as skepticism about cyclicality persists.
In November 2022, a price chart released by Pantera predicted Bitcoin's price trajectory post-halving and speculated that Bitcoin would reach $117,482 by August 11, 2025. According to Coin Metrics data, Bitcoin closed above $119,000 on that day.
Unlike many Bitcoin price predictions, Pantera's forecast was spot on. At the time of their prediction, Bitcoin was about to drop below $16,000 and reached that low on November 21, 2022. Now, Bitcoin's trading price is close to $120,000, a 660% increase from the 2022 low.
The halving cycle demonstrates predictive effectiveness through the post-halving rebound, cycle peak, corrections, and accumulation phases.
Analyst Bob Loukas also analyzed Bitcoin's highs and lows through cycle theory, accurately identifying the start of a new four-year cycle in January 2023.
Will institutional adoption change the narrative of Bitcoin's cycles?
Each Bitcoin halving cycle spawns new narratives, suggesting that 'this time is different.' Currently, Bitcoin has been unprecedentedly institutionalized due to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and companies holding millions of BTC. Since January 2024, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has become the most successful ETF in history, holding 7.1% of Bitcoin's total supply.
Investor Jason Williams cited the growth of Bitcoin company holdings as one of the reasons he believes the 'four-year cycle has ended.'
Bitcoin advocate Pierre Rochard expressed support, adding that the halving has no substantial impact on trading volume, with 95% of Bitcoin already mined, and supply coming from purchases by initial holders, while demand comes from retail, ETPs being added to wealth platforms, and financial companies.
