Ripple (XRP) has increased over 550% since November, reaching above $3 on Tuesday. The strong momentum of this cryptocurrency has led technical analyst Gert van Lagen to predict a broader uptrend, aiming for the $34 mark in the current bull cycle.
Is XRP capable of reaching $30 or more?
The double bottom pattern of XRP suggests a potential 10-fold increase in value.
According to Van Lagen's predictions, XRP has broken out of a seven-year double bottom pattern after surpassing the neckline near $1.80.
Subsequently, this cryptocurrency corrected back to the neckline, which serves as a support level. In terms of chart analysis, such a retest move is often a sign that the breakout has strength and traders are confident in the ability of the price to continue rising higher.
Using the 2nd Fibonacci extension level of the model, predictions based on Van Lagen's measurements indicate a target of $34 by mid-2026.
This configuration is similar to XRP's price action during the 2014–2017 period, when a prolonged bottom led to a parabolic surge, pushing XRP's price up over 100,000%.
The market for XRP has witnessed such significant fluctuations in recent years. For instance, this coin has increased 1,072% since its low in 2022. Previously, during the 2020-2021 period, the price of XRP also skyrocketed over 1,625%.
The price increase of XRP during the 2020-2021 period was primarily driven by the near-zero interest rate environment in the US. Meanwhile, the increase from 2022 to 2025 is mainly supported by progress in the Ripple lawsuit, legal clarity, relisting on exchanges, and expectations for the ETF.
In this, expectations for the ETF continue to lead investors to be optimistic about XRP in 2025 with a 95% probability of ETF approval, along with forecasts that the token could rise to nearly $27 if given the green light, close to Van Lagen's target.
Metrics on the XRP Ledger warn of the risks of overvaluation.
According to data from DefiLlama, the development of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) lags significantly behind other major layer 1s, including Ethereum.
The market capitalization of XRPL is $190 billion, about 2,200 times greater than the total value locked (TVL) of only $85 million. This is a stark contrast to Ethereum's ratio of about 5.6, although XRP's valuation is only nearly 40% compared to Ethereum.
Such a discrepancy has raised concerns about XRP being overvalued compared to its on-chain activity.
As of August, over 95% of the XRP supply is in profit, a threshold that during the bull runs of 2020-2021 and 2022-2025 often signals strong price corrections, as shown in the chart from Glassnode below.
When the majority of holders are in profit, profit-taking activities often occur quickly, creating selling pressure. This move can make it difficult to maintain the current momentum towards the $30 level.
