CPI Below Expectations, Core CPI Hits 6-Month High – Will the Fed Pivot in September?

Global financial markets just received the U.S. CPI data for July 2025: headline CPI rose by 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while core CPI surged unexpectedly to 3.1%—the highest in six months.

This immediately raises a big question: Is the Federal Reserve (Fed) ready to “pivot” and kick off a rate-cutting cycle at its September 17 meeting?

Most experts and Wall Street giants like J.P. Morgan and Forbes agree that the Fed is likely to start cutting rates in September, especially following the July jobs report showing slower wage growth.

However, the rise in core CPI suggests the Fed will proceed cautiously. A modest “pivot” (a 0.25% rate cut) followed by a pause to assess further developments is the most likely scenario.

Is this the “BIG STORM” we’ve been waiting for? 😁