【Inflation Warming Up! Is the Federal Reserve's Dream of Rate Cuts Cooling Down?】

Interpretation of the U.S. July CPI & Core CPI + Market Strategy Reference

📊 Latest Data

Core CPI (Annual Rate): 3.1% (Expected 3.0%, Previous 3.0%) → 5-Month High

Overall CPI (Annual Rate): 2.7% (Expected 2.8%, Previous 2.7%)

1️⃣ Key Signals

The rebound in Core CPI means that "sticky inflation" in services, housing, etc., is still warming up, and the path to cooling prices is not smooth.

Overall CPI stabilizing at 2.x% is mainly due to the decline in energy and food prices "masking" core inflation pressures.

Divergence phenomenon → Overall seems mild, but core is rising, which is exactly the situation the Federal Reserve is most worried about.

2️⃣ Impact on the Market

Cooling expectations for rate cuts → Core inflation higher than expected, the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, or even signal “higher rates for longer.”

The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields may strengthen in the short term → Suppressing risk asset valuations.

The cryptocurrency market is under short-term pressure → BTC, ETH, etc., may initially follow risk-averse sentiment and decline, and then we need to see if capital flows back after adjustments.

3️⃣ Short-term Trading Reference

Dollar Index (DXY): Focus on resistance at 104.5; if broken, may further suppress risk assets.

BTC/ETH: Short-term support for BTC at $57,800 / ETH at $2,840; if lost, need to guard against accelerated declines.

Gold: Under the expectation of higher rates warming up, gold may encounter resistance at $2,420 per ounce.

4️⃣ Risk Control Reminder

Increased volatility after the CPI data release, short-term leverage should be approached with caution.

Pay attention to the FOMC meeting minutes and Powell's speech, as these will directly affect market sentiment.

The data may not be explosive, but the signals are subtle → The “false sense of security” market may be quickly reversed.