US Core CPI in July at 3.1%: The Inflation Ghost Tears Apart the Rate Cut Narrative
Cold Data
▪ Year-on-Year Increase: 3.1% (Expected 3.0% | Previous 2.9%)
▪ Hits a nearly 5-month high, breaking a 4-month cooling trend
▪ Core service inflation accelerates to 4.3% (Housing + Healthcare as main drivers)
Market Squeeze Scene
Interest Rate Futures Tremble: September rate cut probability plummets from 91% to 63%
US Treasuries Bloodbath: 2-year yield surges 14 basis points to 4.68% (largest single-day volatility since 2008)
Fed's Hawkish Revival: “Higher for Longer” rhetoric returns to the front page of The Wall Street Journal
Ultimate Metaphor
This report is like a dagger piercing the dove's chest —
As core CPI accelerates for three consecutive months (May 2.6% → June 2.9% → July 3.1%),
The last rate cut key in Powell's toolbox has been welded shut.
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