Beijing time tonight at 20:30 key data warning: US July unadjusted CPI year-on-year release
Market expectation: 2.8% (previous value 2.7%)
Core verification: Significant lagging effect of tariffs on inflation over 3-5 months
Policy dilemma: Cooling job market and inflation pressure create a policy scissors gap
Scenario simulation:
① Higher than expected: Confirm tariff inflation transmission → Interest rate cut expectations retreat → BTC under pressure to adjust
② In line with expectations: Inflation maintains a gradual decline trend → Focus on interpreting Federal Reserve policy signals
③ Lower than expected: Strengthen September interest rate cut probability → Risk appetite in the crypto market heats up
Continue to pay attention: EDU PROM ASR