Tonight's positive US CPI data has bolstered market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September had previously fallen from a high of nearly 90% to 82%. However, as of August 12, this probability had risen to 91.5%, making a September rate cut virtually certain.

As a key indicator of inflation for the Federal Reserve, the CPI directly influences its monetary policy decisions. If the CPI shows inflation is within manageable limits and avoids significant increases, it creates favorable conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates. This positive CPI data suggests relatively low inflationary pressures, further justifying the Fed's decision to cut interest rates at its September meeting to stimulate economic growth.

In addition, July's non-farm payroll data performed poorly, with new jobs hitting a new low in nine months. The new non-farm payroll data for May and June were also significantly revised downward. This shows that the US job market is slowing down significantly and economic growth is facing pressure, which has become an important factor supporting the Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut. At the same time, the "dovish" voice within the Federal Reserve has become the mainstream. Vice Chairman Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and urges that interest rate cuts be initiated in September. San Francisco Fed President Daly also said that the time for a rate cut is imminent. The statements of these officials have further increased the possibility of a September rate cut. $BTC #CPI数据来袭 $ETH #比特币市值超越亚马逊