CPI data is favorable
Staying long is still the main theme! #CPI数据来袭
Tonight, the CPI data will be released. In the past few days, the US stock market and Bitcoin have been fluctuating in a range, basically waiting for the data to land. Some say it’s a risk-averse sentiment, but to me, it’s just that the market expectations aren’t great. However, if it really collapses, it won’t be too exaggerated!
As for the tariffs, the market has long desensitized to them. The news that comes out now has become lukewarm and indifferent. The core issue now is not whether the Federal Reserve makes the decision itself, but rather the infighting between the aggressive faction and the conservative faction. As long as the data isn’t too outrageous, the aggressive faction will definitely push towards interest rate cuts. The conservatives won’t let go of interest rates unless they see inflation truly going down. The result is that if the data is good, everyone smiles; if the data is bad, it’s not too sad, because a rate cut in September is almost a done deal!
Last month, the core CPI in the US was only 2.9% year-on-year, and that number is not scary at all. Now, what everyone is betting on is not whether the rate cuts will come, but whether it will be 50 basis points or 25 basis points in September. If it’s 50, it will directly surge, and Bitcoin will start from at least ten thousand points!
Back to the market, Bitcoin's recent pullback is almost digested. The drop just before the US stock market closed actually saw the spot premium rise. This indicates that the selling pressure in the spot market has been temporarily released, and new shorts have emerged to provide liquidity. However, as time drags on, it will eventually become a new clearing zone. As long as the CPI doesn’t have any particularly bad news, BTC still has a chance to break new highs this week. After all, with such a rise, the liquidity structure is still biased towards the bulls! #CPI数据
As for the tariffs, the market has long desensitized to them. The news that comes out now has become lukewarm and indifferent. The core issue now is not whether the Federal Reserve makes the decision itself, but rather the infighting between the aggressive faction and the conservative faction. As long as the data isn’t too outrageous, the aggressive faction will definitely push towards interest rate cuts. The conservatives won’t let go of interest rates unless they see inflation truly going down. The result is that if the data is good, everyone smiles; if the data is bad, it’s not too sad, because a rate cut in September is almost a done deal!
Last month, the core CPI in the US was only 2.9% year-on-year, and that number is not scary at all. Now, what everyone is betting on is not whether the rate cuts will come, but whether it will be 50 basis points or 25 basis points in September. If it’s 50, it will directly surge, and Bitcoin will start from at least ten thousand points!
Back to the market, Bitcoin's recent pullback is almost digested. The drop just before the US stock market closed actually saw the spot premium rise. This indicates that the selling pressure in the spot market has been temporarily released, and new shorts have emerged to provide liquidity. However, as time drags on, it will eventually become a new clearing zone. As long as the CPI doesn’t have any particularly bad news, BTC still has a chance to break new highs this week. After all, with such a rise, the liquidity structure is still biased towards the bulls! #CPI数据
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