Current Position
Price is sitting in the $21–$22 zone
$22.05 — clear daily close above it and we open the next leg
Why There’s a Bid
➣ ICE × Chainlink data feeds (FX + precious metals) now on-chain
➣ CCIP live on Solana — first non-EVM deployment
➢ SWIFT’s 2025 trial program approaching
➢ Q2 TVS > $89B, ~68% oracle market share
➣ Chainlink Reserve stacking LINK over time → steady buy pressure
Levels I Care About
Support: $19.50 / $20.00 (flip to floor if held)
Trigger: $22.05 daily close
Next decision: $24.00
August Gameplan
Base case:
Range between $20–$22.05 while OI builds.
Bull trigger:
Break and hold over $22.05 → $23.8–$24.6 comes quick.
Bear risk:
Close under $19.50 puts $18–$18.5 back in play.
September Scenarios
Base (~55%): $24–$28 by end-month if August resolves above $22.05 & $20 holds
Bull (~25%): $29–$32 if $24 flips to support early
Bear (~20%): $18–$19 if $22 rejects hard & weekly closes under $19s.
Invalidation
➣ Two daily closes under $19.50 = bullish path dead
➢ Above $22.05: dips to $21.3–$21.6 = retests
➣ Lose $21 cleanly post-breakout = de-risk until reclaim
End-of-Month Call
Break & hold $22.05 soon → August likely ends $23.5 – $24.9
Fail again → More $20–$22 chop into September
NFA
