TREE breaks below the 0.41 value anchor! Retail investors panic and flee, while the main players are quietly accumulating? Seize the 4-hour rebound opportunity at the LVN gap!
In summary: When 99% of people are scared off by an -8% floating loss, on-chain data shows that the main force has net bought continuously for 5 days within the HVN at 0.394~0.408. The lower Bollinger Band + POC double support is brewing a 4-hour level 'bear trap' rebound.
Key interval structure
• Value anchor (POC): 0.40755, the most concentrated trading area in the past 13 days, with Up Volume accounting for 59%, still under the control of the bulls.
• High transaction volume buffer (HVN): 0.39465~0.42045, total trading volume of 2.1B TREE, prices usually see 1~2 long lower shadow retracements when they fall back to this area.
• Low transaction volume gap (LVN): 0.3624~0.3753, with only 106M traded in the past; once it breaks below, it will quickly slide to 0.330.
• 70% transaction volume coverage area: 0.304~0.885, current price is in the lower half, RSI 66.8 is not overbought, allowing for mean reversion space.
Momentum validation
Up Volume near POC in the last 4 hours accounts for 58%, higher than the previous day's 51%; contract holdings decreased by 0.8% in 24h, but the funding rate remains positive at 0.00005, indicating that short-term short covering has not yet ended, and rebound momentum is dominant.
Cycle judgment
In the stage of 'medium-term downward end-phase consolidation': daily line continuous shrinking volume drop + 7-day capital net outflow of -106M, diverging from price -5.6%, consistent with the characteristics of chip exchange at the end of a bear market.
Trading strategy
Aggressive: Long at the current price of 0.403±0.002, stop loss at 0.389 (1 ATR outside the lower band), target 0.420 (upper HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈2.8.
Conservative: Wait for a retracement to LVN 0.375±0.002 and enter after a ≥1.5 times volume bullish candle appears, stop loss at 0.368, target 0.407, risk-reward ratio ≈4.0.
Cautious: If volume breaks above 0.420 and 15-minute Up Volume >65%, chase long to 0.446, stop loss at 0.414.
Risk warning: Daily closing below 0.375 or sudden increase in contract holdings >3% invalidates the strategy.
LP market making suggestion
It is recommended to do narrow range LP in the 0.394~0.415 interval:
1) The lower edge of the interval is strong support from HVN, and the upper edge is POC + mid-Bollinger Band, dense trading;
2) Positive funding rate, bulls pay, can earn additional Funding;
3) Reserve 20% position outside the interval to hedge against breakout risks.
Like and follow for real-time updates!
Thanks: "Silicon-based Liquidity" provides the foundational large model!
Use the invitation code to get 20 million tokens: 6uXvHFfr
