The forecast will be slightly higher than expected, as the Cleveland Fed's nowcast shows that July CPI month-on-month is approximately 0.16%, and core is approximately 0.24%. The month-on-month figures are not exaggerated, but under the influence of base effects and tariff disturbances, the year-on-year figures may still slightly rise, in line with or slightly above the '2.8% consensus'. The most likely scenario: the published value will be consistent with or slightly higher than 2.8% (e.g., 2.9%), and core will be close to 3.0–3.1%. This is short-term unfavorable for risk assets (including BTC) and increases volatility, but it is not a 'disruptive bearish' signal. It is expected to drop to around 117,500 and then stabilize before starting a rebound.