August 12 Evening Market View
1. Core Range Prediction
Bitcoin: 117500 – 120500, short-term tendency "pullback → increase"
Altcoin: 4200 – 4420, similarly tends to "pullback → increase"
2. Key Data and Risk Events This Week
Tuesday 20:30 US July Non-Seasonally Adjusted CPI Year-on-Year
Tuesday 22:00, 22:30 Two Federal Reserve officials speak
Thursday 01:00, 01:30 Two Federal Reserve officials speak
Thursday 20:30 US July PPI Year-on-Year
Friday 20:30 US July Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Friday 21:15 US July Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Friday 22:00 US August One-Year Inflation Expectations Initial Value
3. Market Rhythm Interpretation
Yesterday Review:
Bitcoin surged and then fell back, daily line closed with a long upper shadow, resistance is evident
Altcoin dropped and then directly reversed in a V-shape, bullish strength is strong
Current Structure:
Bitcoin is currently difficult to gather market funds for an upward attack
Altcoin is more likely to become the leader in the upward trend
4. Two Major Highlights Tonight
① CPI Data (20:30)
Expectation: Slightly bearish, US inflation has a slight rebound
Logic: The probability of a rate cut in September remains high, as long as inflation does not exceed expectations, overall bias is bullish
Operational tendency: Data may first drop and then rebound, especially Altcoin is expected to V-reverse again
Risk Point: If inflation data greatly exceeds expectations → risk of a significant drop increases
② Federal Reserve Official Speeches (22:00 & 23:00)
Background: Non-farm payrolls for May and June revised down by 280,000, employment is weak
Possibility: Some officials' attitudes may turn dovish → likely to boost Bitcoin and Altcoin strength
In Summary:
Tonight focus on CPI, data + official speeches, short-term may see a "drop then rise" rhythm, Altcoin has better elasticity.
$CYBER $IDOL $ICNT
