Tonight's focus is on the CPI at 8:30 PM
Due to retailers gradually raising prices on various goods with high import tariffs, U.S. inflation in July may see a slight rebound.
At 8:30 PM Beijing time on Tuesday, the market generally expects the overall CPI for July to increase by 2.8% year-on-year, up from a rise of 2.7% in June. Driven by the expected decline in gasoline prices and moderate easing of food inflation, the month-on-month increase is expected to be 0.2%, slightly lower than June's increase of 0.3%.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core inflation rate for July is expected to rise slightly from 2.9% in June to 3.0%, indicating that the rise in goods inflation is no longer being offset by the easing of service sector inflation, with month-on-month inflation also expected to climb by 0.3%, exceeding June's increase of 0.2%, marking the strongest growth in six months.
Higher tariffs in the U.S. have begun to permeate consumer categories such as household goods and entertainment. However, so far, a separate measure of core service inflation remains moderate. Nevertheless, many economists expect the rise in import tariffs to continue to gradually spread.
This is the dilemma for Federal Reserve officials, who have maintained interest rates this year while hoping to determine whether tariffs will lead to sustained inflation. Meanwhile, the labor market—another half of their dual policy mandate—is showing signs of losing momentum.