Currently, most people in the market believe that the US CPI for July will be slightly higher than last month, showing some signs of rising inflation.
The reason is simple: recently, both oil and food prices have risen, and tariff factors are gradually becoming apparent, which may push up the data.
However, everyone’s predictions are not overly exaggerated, roughly around 2.8%-2.9% year-on-year, with core CPI around 3%.
My prediction: I tend to think it will be slightly higher than market expectations, for example, the overall CPI year-on-year may hit 2.9% or even approach 3%, and the core CPI may be about 0.1 percentage points higher than expected. If it aligns with the predictions, the market may initially react strongly (with a short-term pullback in the stock and cryptocurrency markets), but if it’s not particularly shocking, it will recover quickly. If you are looking to position yourself in advance, I believe the market is likely to be more cautious before the data comes out tonight; the probability of short positions winning slightly increases. After the data is released, be cautious of sudden spikes and manage your positions rationally.
Predictions: For reference only, not investment advice; the market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. $$BNB