💥The CPI data at 8:30 PM tonight is being awaited by many friends before deciding on trading direction. In fact, this kind of waiting is not very meaningful in the crypto circle.
There is an essential difference between the crypto market and the stock market; the impact of news is far less significant than you might think. If non-farm data can be manipulated, can we really trust the CPI? After the disappointing non-farm data release last week, many people shorted based on the data, only to find themselves in a tough spot—data can be altered, but the money lost cannot be changed.
News can be a reference, but it should not be the basis for trading. Based on the current non-farm data, the probability of a rate cut in September is as high as 90%. If tonight's CPI is below or meets expectations, the expectations for a rate cut will be even stronger; if it exceeds expectations, it is indeed bearish, but in the late stage of the current bull market, the impact of negative news has been weakened, making a significant drop like last year unlikely. Overly fixating on news can easily lead you into traps set by major players.
From the market perspective, Ethereum has been fluctuating for two consecutive days, with a doji and a small bearish body. It seems unable to rise, but this does not mean it will fall; it could also be a period of consolidation. The failure to pull back after breaking above the previous high of $4100 indicates that bullish momentum remains strong. The current fluctuations are more likely a trap for shorts, and a large bullish candle could emerge at any time.
There is no need to chase highs for the medium to long term; for the short term, one can wait for a pullback to enter; however, blindly shorting at this level requires extra caution, as there are no clear signals of a downward trend in the market.
