The drama in the crypto circle is more thrilling than the script! Last night, Trump's statement "No tax on gold" directly caused gold to drop by 2.5%, and ETH also plummeted from a high of 4300. Many retail investors who just bought in were pressed down, but don't rush to cut losses – hidden in this wave of volatility is the true strategy of institutions; understanding it might help you catch reversal opportunities!
Key Point Battle: ETH's 'Three Lifelines'
Currently, ETH is walking on a knife's edge, with three key points determining its fate:
Resistance Level 4370: The 'Iron Ceiling' of the past month, institutions dumped 800 million here last night and halted. There is a mountain of trapped positions here; without new funds stepping in, it simply cannot break through.
Battlefield for Bulls and Bears 4250: A must-contest area for the day, it failed to break three attempts in the morning, indicating that the bulls are still holding firm. Only if it stabilizes can there be a chance for a rebound; if it breaks down, it will face consequences.
Support Level 4150: The last fig leaf for the bulls. On-chain data shows that institutions have long placed numerous buy orders between 4150-4200; if it really breaks down, it could trigger programmatic selling, so keep a close eye.
The Truth about Funds: Institutions are secretly stockpiling, not fleeing
Don't shout that institutions have fled just because of a drop; on-chain data reveals it clearly: last night's surge at 9:30 was not something retail investors could achieve; giants like Galaxy Digital and FalconX swept up 210 million dollars' worth of ETH in half an hour. Even more aggressive was SharpLink, which directly exchanged 200 million dollars for 52,000 ETH locked away; this is clearly not short-term speculation, but a signal of long-term optimism.
Some are worried that a drop in gold will drag ETH down, but in fact, the two have long been unrelated: gold relies on safe-haven demand, while ETH relies on institutional ETFs and staking ecosystems for support; the underlying logic is entirely different. This pullback seems more like a washout to shake off indecisive retail investors.
Technical Warning: Overbought needs adjustment, but the trend is not broken
On the technical indicators, RSI is already at 81.94, indicating clear overbought conditions; a short-term adjustment is indeed needed to relieve pressure. However, the MACD golden cross is still in place, just with a narrowing fast and slow line, indicating that the bulls have not collapsed and are still gathering strength. Trading volume is lower than the 5-day average but has not shown a significant drop; panic selling has not emerged, making this adjustment relatively healthy.
Latest Trading Strategy: Different Styles to Play
Aggressive: 4250-4280 can try going long with light positions; this is the core area of the intraday tug-of-war. Stop-loss must be set at 4230; if it breaks, get out. The target is initially 4350, and if it breaks through, then look for previous highs.
Cautious Approach: Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for a pullback to 4180-4200 before buying in batches. This position is close to support and has institutional buy orders supporting it, making it safer. Set a stop-loss at 4120 to guard against black swans; looking long-term, above 4500 shouldn't be a big issue.
Contract Players: Right now, volatility is over 30%; playing with more than 10x leverage is asking for trouble! Positions must be reduced, and automatic stop-losses must be set properly to prevent a wave of volatility from wiping out everything.
The crypto world has never been about trading stocks based on news; it's about the tug-of-war of funds and logic. Whether Trump will make more statements and whether institutional money will enter will determine if ETH can break through 4370. Follow for the next turning point!
