CPI will explode tonight! Will Bitcoin hit 130,000 or crash to 110,000? The Phoenix will guide you on 'defusing the bomb'!

Folks! Tonight the crypto world will stage a 'life-and-death' speed—US CPI data is released, this thing is now the 'heartbeat monitor' of the crypto world, when the data jumps, your account could directly 'profit' or 'get hit'! Why do I say this? Let me clarify for you!

Why has CPI become a 'time bomb' in the crypto world?

In the past, the crypto market's ups and downs could still be explained by 'technical aspects', but now? It doesn't hold anymore! The Federal Reserve is the real big boss behind the scenes, and CPI is its 'baton'. If the data is high, it indicates that inflation is not under control, and the Fed may continue to 'hold off on rate cuts'; if the data is low, inflation cools down, and the market immediately gets excited, wildly expecting 'easing'. Simply put, CPI is the 'signal flare' for the Fed's interest rate hikes/cuts, and the interest rate decisions directly determine how much money is in the market—more money means the crypto market rises; less money means the crypto market falls.

But tonight's CPI is a bit 'suspicious'! Trump is making moves, replacing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics with his own people, and the market is panicking: 'Will this data be tampered with?' Even Morgan Stanley is speaking out: 'The credibility of official data has collapsed, all assets need to be re-evaluated!' Even more absurdly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has cut back on CPI data collection in some cities due to lack of funds, switching to 'estimates'. Bank of America has calculated that this estimation error could be as high as 0.02%, and during periods sensitive to inflation, such a small error can make the market 'explode'!

Three main scenarios for tonight's CPI, how should the crypto world respond?

Scenario 1: CPI below expectations—'Easing frenzy, Bitcoin hits new highs!'

The Fed is likely to cut interest rates directly in September, the dollar depreciates, and risk assets collectively rise! Bitcoin could directly break the historical high of 123,000, heading for 130,000; Ethereum (ETH) challenges $4,500; altcoins (like SOL, AVAX) may rise even more than BTC!

My opinion: Don't be timid; you can chase long positions, but don't go all in! Cooling inflation may weaken Bitcoin's 'digital gold' properties, but liquidity easing is the main theme. However, after the data is released, there may be 'profit-taking' in the first hour, so don’t get overly excited and chase at the peak!

Scenario 2: CPI meets expectations—'Short-term fluctuations, medium-term trend unchanged'

The Fed maintains expectations for a rate cut in September, but the market may be 'fatigued by aesthetics' and react mildly. Bitcoin is fluctuating in the range of 118,000-123,000, with altcoins diverging.

My opinion: Suitable for swing trading, don't be greedy! This kind of 'lukewarm' data is most likely to make traders itchy, but the medium-term rising trend remains unchanged, and the fluctuations are actually opportunities to buy low.

Scenario 3: CPI above expectations—'Liquidity tightening, the crypto market collectively plunges!'

The Fed may delay rate cuts or even not cut rates, the dollar strengthens, and risk assets are sold off. Bitcoin may test the 115,000 support level; Ethereum could fall back below $4,000; altcoins may crash.

My opinion: This scenario is the most dangerous, but also a 'bottom-fishing' opportunity! The options market shows that a large number of hedging positions are concentrated in the 115,000-118,000 put range; if it breaks below, it may trigger programmed selling. But 115,000 is the key support level, if it really drops to this level, don’t panic, build positions in batches!

What are the 'trump cards' in the crypto world right now?

Retail investors are flooding in: 360,000 new BTC addresses in a single day, indicating 'retail' is rushing in, market sentiment is extremely optimistic!

Institutions are secretly increasing positions: Last week, net inflow into cryptocurrency ETFs was $571 million, resisting the 'whale sell-off' (large holders selling), indicating the market structure is quite stable!

The options market is 'in panic': Large hedging positions are betting on 115,000-118,000 puts, implied volatility is soaring, everyone is betting on big fluctuations tonight!

How to operate tonight? 3 steps to 'guaranteed profit'!

Time node: CPI will be released at 20:30 Beijing time, volatility may surge by over 50% in the hour before and after, it is recommended to reduce positions 10 minutes in advance, and take action after the data is out!

Hedging strategy:

Holding BTC long positions? Buy put options below 118,000 (Put), cost about $2,000 per contract, hedge against 'black swan' risks!

Want to 'bet' on volatility? Buy straddle options, simultaneously buy call and put options at 122,000, costing about $5,000 per contract, and if volatility surges, you could make three times the profit!

Trend trading:

CPI below expectations: Chase long positions in BTC/ETH, with a focus on SOL (high beta, may rise over 20%)!

CPI above expectations: Reduce positions by 50%, switch to stablecoins (USDC/USDT), and decide after testing the 115,000 support!

Summary: Will tonight bring 'wealth' or 'loss'?

Data below expectations: Bitcoin starts a new rising cycle, 130,000 is not a dream!

Data above expectations: Short-term pullback pressure is significant, but 115,000 is a 'golden pit', a buying opportunity is coming!

Long-term logic: If the credibility of CPI data collapses, Bitcoin's value as a 'non-political asset' will systematically increase!

Final piece of advice: Don’t get 'high' tonight, control leverage, and set stop-loss orders! CPI is just the 'appetizer'; Thursday's PPI data and Fed officials' speeches are the 'main course'—this wave of market action has just begun!

Follow me, the Phoenix of the crypto world, and let me help you decipher the 'wealth code' of the crypto market! #比特币市值超越亚马逊 Follow the Phoenix Trend