Dogecoin has shown impressive performance recently, with an increase of over 16% within a week, but the price has entered a consolidation phase in the past 24 hours. On-chain data indicates that some sellers may have started to take profits, leading to stagnation in the short-term trend and even facing pullback pressure. Whether it can hold the key support level will determine whether it continues to rise or turns downward.
Profit-taking pressure and capital flow
1. Profitability address ratio: Recently maintained at around 84%, comparable to levels at the end of July, when the price fell from $0.24 to $0.19 within a week. Historical data shows that a high profitability ratio is often accompanied by selling pressure release.
2. Net flow on exchanges: On August 10, net outflows reached $52 million, which turned into a net inflow of $2.7 million on the 11th, indicating a significant influx of Dogecoin into exchanges, and traders may be accumulating for sale.
Additionally, the realized profit margin (SOPR) indicator also shows that the market may enter an adjustment period.
This indicator reflects the profit or loss situation when tokens are sold, with a value exceeding 1.0 indicating that holders are in a profitable state. On August 10, Dogecoin's SOPR reached 1.045, close to the level at the end of July, at which point the price subsequently experienced a rapid decline.
This indicates that the market may face short-term cooling, and the upward trend of SOPR is also consistent with the current market environment dominated by selling.
According to the chart trends, key support and resistance levels will influence the direction of Dogecoin's next movements.
On the 4-hour chart of Dogecoin, the price fluctuates around $0.235, slightly below the downward trend line of the descending triangle. This pattern tends to be downward in the short term, showing more signs of consolidation rather than a sharp decline.
The Fibonacci support level at the bottom of the triangle is critical, and the current price has broken through several resistance points related to $0.23.
If it can hold steady, it may attract buying; once it breaks down, it could trigger further declines. If it can break through the $0.24 to $0.246 range, the triangle pattern will be broken, potentially challenging above $0.25 and continuing the upward trend. Currently, $0.22 is the critical watershed for judging rises and falls.
Market sentiment and whale movements
Although overall market sentiment is optimistic, Polymarket data shows that the probability of Dogecoin breaking its historical high in 2025 is about 19%. However, the active buying by whale investors, especially large trades on Binance and OKX, shows that market confidence in Dogecoin remains.
According to CoinGlass statistics, whales are seeing positive growth in capital flow in the spot market, with net purchases in the derivatives market exceeding $123 million, indicating that investors still have expectations for the future potential of Doge.
However, as Bitcoin regains dominance, funds flowing into altcoins may decrease, putting pressure on Doge's liquidity. Even so, there remain potential volatility risks in the market, including the possibility of sharp price drops.
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