#CPIWatch

U.S. CPI Report – July 2025 Inflation Data

Forecast: 2.8% YoY (vs. June’s 2.7%)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical inflation gauge, influencing Federal Reserve policy and market sentiment.

Market Expectations:

  • Neutral Scenario (2.8–2.9%) → Likely muted reaction, as this aligns with forecasts.

  • Lower CPI (<2.8%) → Potential crypto rally on hopes of Fed rate cuts.

  • Higher CPI (>2.9%) → Risk-off sentiment, possible dip in BTC & altcoins.

Watch Core CPI (ex-food/energy): If sticky, the Fed may delay rate cuts, weighing on crypto.

Trump Extends China Tariffs by 90 Days – Geopolitical Implications

The U.S. has delayed new tariffs on Chinese imports, signaling:

  • Strategic pause to avoid economic disruption.

  • Potential negotiations on tech, EVs, and semiconductors.

  • Market reaction: Muted so far, but easing tensions could support risk assets like crypto.

Ethereum Spot ETFs Hit $1B Daily Inflow – Institutional Demand Surges

Record $1B inflow into ETH ETFs signals:

  • Growing institutional adoption beyond Bitcoin.

  • Bullish momentum for ETH, with $4,500 as the next key resistance.

  • Long-term catalysts: DeFi growth, staking yields, and RWA tokenization.

Metaplanet Buys 518 BTC – Now Holds $2.1B in Bitcoin

The Japanese firm continues its BTC treasury strategy, mirroring MicroStrategy’s approach:

  • Total holdings: 18,113 BTC (~$2.1B).

  • Hedge against yen weakness amid Japan’s economic challenges.

  • Corporate adoption trend strengthens Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative.

Crypto Market Snapshot

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Consolidating near $118K–$122K; CPI data could trigger next big move.

  • Ethereum (ETH): Strong ETF inflows may push price toward $4,500+.

  • Altcoins: Large caps (SOL, BNB, ADA) could follow BTC/ETH, while L2 and RWA tokens gain traction.

Today’s Key Watchlist

CPI Release (15:30 UTC+5) – Immediate crypto & stock market reaction.
 ETH Price Action – Can ETF inflows fuel a breakout above $4,500?
 U.S.-China Trade Updates – Further developments may impact global markets.
 Metaplanet’s Influence – More firms may adopt BTC as a reserve asset.

Today’s CPI report is the biggest catalyst—expect volatility if data surprises. While institutional adoption (ETH ETFs, Metaplanet’s BTC buys) supports long-term bullish trends, short-term traders should manage risk carefully.

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