On August 12, 2025, at 20:30, the U.S. July CPI data will transform into a 'financial blade,' cutting through the market's disguise—year-on-year expectations rebounding (2.7% → 2.8%), month-on-month expectations cooling (0.3% → 0.2%), and core inflation's stubborn rise (0.2% → 0.3%) are creating a triple contradiction that is dragging global assets into a 'shura field of long and short strangulation.' Bitcoin is stuck at the 119,000 barrier**, just one step away from the round number of 120,000. This ultimate judgment regarding the Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut will determine its 'life and death direction' within 30 minutes!

I. CPI 'contradiction code': apparent cooling, but hidden dangers

Beneath the **'sugar-coated'** expectation of a month-on-month decrease lies the poison of 'core inflation rebound + year-on-year rise'—the most dreaded 'stickiness of inflation'** is brewing: service-related inflation such as rent and healthcare continues to heat up, and energy prices also hide rebound potential.

Market interpretation thoroughly divided:

- Bulls: Betting on 'month-on-month cooling = September interest rate cut is stable,' crazily leveraging to sprint towards 120,000 (current price 119,000, just one step away from the previous high of 122,000);

- Bears: Keep a close eye on 'core + year-on-year = inflation not yet uprooted,' sharpening their knives while waiting for bad news. The lower Bollinger Band at 118,000 has become a battlefield for longs and shorts.

II. Market clandestine battle: Bitcoin leverage 'naked swimming' crisis

Global assets have entered a **'life-and-death gamble'** mode:

- Bitcoin perpetual contracts: funding rates soar to **+0.15% (historical high)**, over 70% of bulls leverage to chase 120,000; once bad news hits, stop-loss orders will trigger a chain liquidation;

- Altcoins (SOL, BNB): Contract holdings have surpassed historical extremes. If Bitcoin leads the decline, it will trigger a 'waterfall liquidation' (refer to the negative CPI in May 2025, where SOL dropped 27% in a single day).

III. Bitcoin trend simulation: The 'life-and-death ordeal' at the 120,000 threshold

▶ Expectations exceeded hawkish (data unfavorable):

If the year-on-year rate ≥ 2.8% and core ≥ 0.3%, Bitcoin will smash through the lower Bollinger Band at 118,000, heading straight for the previous support at 115,000 (technical break + funding stampede), with U.S. stocks and gold also coming under pressure.

▶ Dovish expectations exceeded (data favorable):

If the year-on-year rate is <2.8% and core <0.3%, Bitcoin will break through the mid-range of 120,000, challenging the previous high of 122,000, with a wave of leveraged short liquidations pushing prices up crazily, and altcoins rising over 30% in a single day.

Deadly dark line: If energy drags down the CPI but core inflation surges, Bitcoin may first explode upwards to test 120,000, then plummet back to 117,000 (both longs and shorts will be harvested, those who chase highs and kill lows will perish).

IV. Operational survival: The 'position game' at the 120,000 threshold

- Responding to bad news: Enter short positions, set stop-loss at 120,000 (if breaking the mid-line, the trend reverses; exit in time), liquidate high-leverage positions, hold USDT for hedging;

- Favorable speculation: After stabilizing at 118,000, enter light long positions, targeting 120,000; when pressured at 120,000, enter light short positions, targeting 117,000, beware of the reversal traps of 'first rising then falling/first falling then rising.'

Tonight, the showdown at the 120,000 mark for Bitcoin is a **violent collision between 'the truth of inflation' and 'market expectations.'** Longs and shorts engage in leverage battles, ordinary traders must avoid 'naked swimming'—the rationality in your position is the ticket to navigate volatility.

(Note: Cryptocurrency volatility is extreme; leverage trading should strictly control risks. This article is for simulation purposes only and is not investment advice!)#CPI数据来袭 $BTC