CPI data is coming tonight, the Fed's 'Hawk-Dove Battle' is heating up! Is the fate of the crypto market determined tonight?
1. Tonight's CPI Data: The 'Life and Death Judge' for the Fed's Rate Cut in September
At 20:30 Beijing time, the US July CPI data will be released with great impact! The market expects a slight rebound in core inflation (UBS even raised expectations to 3.11%), if the data exceeds expectations, the Fed's rate cut expectations will be severely hit! Currently, the Fed is split into two factions:
Hawkish: Sticky inflation + tariff transmission, absolutely no rate cuts!
Dovish: High economic uncertainty necessitates rate cuts to save the market!
Old Chen's Viewpoint: If CPI exceeds 3.1%, the market's fantasy of 'two rate cuts this year' will be shattered, and the US stock market and Bitcoin will be negatively impacted! But if the data is below 3%, expectations for a rate cut in September will heat up, and the crypto market will see a violent rebound!
2. The 'Domino Effect' of Global Central Banks: The Reserve Bank of Australia has already issued a warning!
RBA Governor Lowe stated directly: 'If the Fed cuts rates too quickly, it will impact the global economy!' This suggests that global central banks are closely watching the Fed's actions. Once the Fed changes direction, the 'liquidity floodgates' for Bitcoin will be completely opened!
Old Chen reveals: According to internal sources, some Wall Street institutions have begun to bet on 'the Fed delaying rate cuts', leading to frequent sell-offs of Bitcoin during Europe and America's trading hours! However, Asian capital is still bottom fishing, and the long-short battle is entering a fever pitch!
3. UBS warns: The inflation nightmare has just begun!
UBS predicts that core CPI will soar (0.6%-0.76%) from August to October, which means the Fed may be forced into a 'long-term high interest rate' scenario! Is this a fatal blow to the crypto market? No!!!
Counter-interpretation:
Bad news out and good news in: If the market digests 'no rate cut' in advance, Bitcoin may actually rebound from the bottom!
Cryptocurrency becomes a safe-haven asset: As traditional markets collapse due to inflation, capital will accelerate into BTC!
Tonight's CPI = The 'Nuclear Button' for the crypto market?
Old Chen's Bold Prediction: Bitcoin has currently entered a consolidation phase, indicating that there will be major market movements tonight. Old Chen believes that Bitcoin has already suffered a drop last night and this morning, gradually digesting the stimulus from not cutting rates. Therefore, even if the data is higher than expected, the downside space won't be large. Conversely, if it's lower than expected, Bitcoin will see a rally.
Finally, Old Chen gives you three pieces of advice!
Don't go all in before the data: Better to miss out than to get liquidated!
Pay attention to Asian capital movements: If Europe and America crash, and Asia picks it up, it's a signal for bottom fishing!
Positioning in Altcoins before September: Once the Fed turns dovish, the altcoin season will come in full swing!
I am Old Chen, the fortune-telling predictor, focusing on news dissection and targeting critical market situations! Follow me to avoid being a latecomer. One strategy every day to grasp the main force's rhythm in advance!#CPI数据来袭 #BTC回调
