August 12 Afternoon Market View
1. Big Pie, expected range 117500-120500, expected to pull back and rise;
2. Second Pie, expected range 4200-4420, expected to pull back and rise
Tuesday 20:30 US July Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year
Tuesday 22:00, 22:30 two Federal Reserve voting officials will speak sequentially.
Thursday 01:00, 01:30 two Federal Reserve voting officials will speak sequentially
Thursday 20:30 US July PPI Year-on-Year
Friday 20:30 US July Retail Sales Month-on-Month
Friday 21:15 US July Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Friday 22:00 US August One-Year Inflation Expectation Initial Value
1. Yesterday, the Big Pie surged and then retreated, with a long upper shadow on the daily line, indicating significant resistance; the Second Pie experienced a V-shaped reversal after falling yesterday, with strong bullish momentum. Currently, it seems that the Big Pie cannot gather market strength to attack upward, while the Second Pie is more likely to continue to rise.
2. Today, pay attention to the US CPI data at 20:30, and two Federal Reserve officials will speak at 22:00 and 23:00 respectively.
① CPI data is expected to be slightly bearish, as US inflation is showing some signs of increase;
However, the probability of a rate cut in September is extremely high, as long as inflation is not too severe, a rate cut will still occur.
Therefore, it is expected that there will be a pullback around the data release, but after a sharp drop, it is highly likely to return to an upward trend, especially the Second Pie may experience another V-shaped reversal.
But if the inflation data unexpectedly exceeds expectations significantly, a large drop will occur.
② As for the speeches of the Federal Reserve officials, considering the downward revision of 280,000 non-farm jobs in May and June indicating weakness in the job market, it may prompt some voting officials to change their stance and support a quicker rate cut; if the two officials tonight make dovish comments, it could help boost the Big Pie and Second Pie.
After the pullback, look for low buys
