ETH breaking $4,000 is not just a price milestone, but also signifies that the crypto circle has officially entered the 'capital diffusion period' - the wave of migration from core assets to undervalued altcoins has already started. Combined with the current market rhythm, share a practical strategy focusing on 'technical breakthroughs + event catalysts' to help you capture the main line amidst the chaos.
I. The core logic of the current market: laws of capital migration during acceleration
After Bitcoin breaks $118,000, the market shifts from 'leading rise' to 'full bloom' phase:
Clear main line: ETH stabilizes above $4,000, triggering altcoin season signal - historical data shows that after ETH breaks key integer levels, 80% of altcoins will see a rebound within 1-2 months, especially those with technical landings or event catalysts.
Core strategy: avoid already doubled 'high position themes', focus on 'technical breakthroughs, event nodes, still undervalued' three types of targets, while using ironclad rules to lock in risk (emotional trading is the biggest killer during altcoin season).
II. Three types of must-watch targets: find opportunities from technology, events, sentiment
1. Technical breakthrough type: true innovation has sustainability
The rise of these projects relies on 'solid technological progress' support, rather than mere speculation:
New forces in Layer2:
zkSync Era: After the launch of the flexible proof network, on-chain transfer efficiency increased by 3 times, weekly transfer volume surged by 150%, developer activity increased by over 30% monthly (user growth driven by technical landing is the most solid).
Hyper: staking annualized return seems exaggerated (1000%), but is actually derived from early liquidity mining incentives, the core focus is 'whether the staking amount can stabilize and grow' - currently the staking amount has broken 10 million U for 7 consecutive days, worth tracking.
AI + blockchain integration:
ALCH (game protocol): AI NPCs embedded in blockchain games, testnet users exceeded 100,000, 24-hour interaction volume increased by 80% (technological landing can convert to users and transaction flow).
TICS (cross-border payment): Completed 'AI smart routing' technology testing during the pre-sale phase, transfer costs reduced by 60% compared to traditional solutions, already received integration intentions from 3 payment institutions before launch.
Screening indicators: weekly on-chain transfer volume, developer activity, actual user numbers (these three data cannot be fabricated, are key to distinguishing 'true innovation' from 'pseudo-concepts').
2. Event-driven type: certainty opportunities before node landing
Driven by 'predictable events', the upward logic is clear, suitable for early positioning:
Mainnet launch countdown:
Injective (DeFi derivatives): Mainnet V1.5 version will support cross-chain derivatives trading, currently the testnet trading volume has surpassed 50 million U, likely there will be 'speculative hype' before launch.
0g (modular blockchain): Modular architecture solves the pain point of 'scalability and security cannot be had at the same time', 72 hours before the mainnet launch, institutional wallet address holdings increased by over 5% of circulating supply (signal of large funds positioning in advance).
Rebound opportunity after unlocking:
Optimism: After $25.6 million token unlock, selling pressure accounts for only 5% of circulating supply (far below the market's expected 10%), currently stabilizing at the $1 mark - unlocking leads to price increase instead of decrease, indicating strong support, potential for rebound.
Entry timing: 3-7 days before the mainnet launch (intervene before expectations are realized), confirm selling pressure exhaustion after unlocking (e.g., Optimism stabilizing above $1).
3. Sentiment resonance type: meme and meme's short-term explosive power
Altcoin season cannot lack the performance of 'sentiment coins', these types of targets are driven by 'topic + capital consensus', quick in and out is key:
WIF (Solana ecosystem): After breaking $1.18, Twitter topic volume increased by 500% in 24 hours, whales began small-scale accumulation (single transaction < 0.1ETH to avoid triggering market vigilance), short-term resistance level looks at $1.45 (near previous high).
T6900 (meme protocol): FOMO mechanism design + 427% staking annualized return, attracting a large number of retail investors, currently circulating supply is only 20 million U (small market cap easy to pump), but beware of 'high staking annualized return leading to sell-off backlash'.
Operating principle: Single project position not exceeding 5%, set a 15% hard stop loss (emotional declines happen 10 times faster than rises).
III. Operating iron rules: the core of making big money during altcoin season is 'not to crash'
1. Position allocation: put eggs in different baskets, leave a good backup
Core assets (XRP, SOL, etc.) account for 50% (bottoming, risk resistance);
Technical breakthrough type + event-driven type accounts for 30% (earning from the main rising wave);
Sentiment resonance type single project ≤ 5% (high risk high reward, take profits when good);
Reserve 20% cash (for buying on dips or seizing new opportunities).
2. Stop-loss and take-profit: dynamically adjust, let profits run
Dynamic stop loss: after profits exceed 20%, move the stop loss line to the cost price (ensure no loss); after profits exceed 50%, move the stop loss to 'cost price + 20%' (lock in some profits).
Partial profit-taking: reduce position by 50% at previous high pressure level (cash out), set 'trailing stop loss' for the remaining 50% (bet on potential main rising wave).
Circuit breaker mechanism: if total daily loss reaches 3%, immediately pause trading, review strategy (to avoid emotional increases in position amplifying losses).
3. Entry signal: wait for clear signals to take action, don't guess the bottom
Technical Analysis: 4-hour chart MA50 crosses above MA200 (golden cross), RSI rebounds from oversold zone (<30) (confirming short-term trend strength).
Fundamentals: 24-hour trading volume surged over 200%, price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band (a clear signal of funds entering).
IV. Risk warning: avoid three types of traps in the 'fool's zone'
The altcoin season is most likely to step into pitfalls during the frenzy, these three types of projects should be cautious:
Overvalued type: TVL weekly increase over 200% but no actual use case (data supported by mining subsidies, not sustainable);
Volume-faking type: social media daily active users increased by 10 times but code updates stagnated (traffic fabrication, lacking fundamental support);
Dumping type: 72 hours before the exchange lists the coin, large transfers account for over 10% of the circulating volume (high probability that the project side is dumping to cash out).
Response strategy: trigger any of the above conditions, immediately reduce positions by 70%, keep 30% to observe; set 'price pullback of 15%+ with volume shrink' for automatic take profit using TradingView (to avoid hesitation in manual operation).
Key tools: Let data help you make decisions
On-chain monitoring: Use Arkham to track whale address movements, Nansen analyzes 'smart money' position changes (avoid being harvested by large holders);
Trade execution: Use WEEX's conditional orders + trailing stop loss (automated strategy execution to avoid emotional trading), or Binance API for semi-automated trading.
After ETH breaks $4,000, the script for altcoin season has already unfolded - some people made double profits, while others chased high and got trapped, the core difference lies in 'whether there is a clear strategy + ability to strictly execute'. Remember: profits during altcoin season come from 'precise screening + disciplined operation', not luck.
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