The institutional holding ratio of Ethereum (#机构疯抢以太坊 ) recently broke **30%** (a record high), coupled with continuous inflow of spot ETF funds (over **500 million dollars** in a single week), leading to a surge in short-term market sentiment. However, whether it can trigger a "super bull market" depends on observing three core variables:

1. **Ecological Self-Sustainability**: The adoption rate of L2 (current daily active users of Arb/OP account for ~60% of Ethereum) and the trading volume of DEX (Q2 quarter-on-quarter +20%) needs to continue growing;

2. **Sustainability of Deflation**: The current annualized deflation rate is 0.8%. If the on-chain Gas demand decreases, it may weaken value capture;

3. **Competition Diversion**: High-performance chains like Solana are competing for institutional funds (its ETF application has been put on the agenda).

If the Fed lowers interest rates in September + Ethereum staking yield remains **3.5%+** (higher than U.S. Treasuries), institutional allocation demand may drive a breakthrough of previous highs, but caution is needed regarding high Gas fees and regulatory uncertainties (the SEC has not clearly stated its position on the securities attributes of ETH).