The views on holdings (consensus) between large holders (whales) and retail investors are relatively consistent.
Mainly has these characteristics:
First, the core situation is: large whales have been accumulating, and historically their timing for accumulation has been quite accurate; when the price retraced to $165, the chips here not only did not decrease but actually increased, indicating that everyone recognizes this price. If someone sells, someone buys, SOL might be waiting for an explosive opportunity, just not knowing the exact timing.
Verify from two aspects:
Performance during declines:
Look at the selling situation of different groups during several declines.
Retail investors panicked the most on June 22, losing over $70 million. By August 2, when it dropped again, they only lost $20 million, and those who remained were more willing to hold on;
High net worth groups panicked the most during the first wave of declines on June 5, but when the declines became sharper, they were more willing to hold on, resulting in smaller losses; the amount sold by the whale group during losses was less than that of retail and high net worth groups, and even when it dropped, they were not too panicked, showing the strongest confidence. This indicates that everyone's emotions have stabilized.
Profit-taking situation:
When the price reaches the top, there are usually a large number of people selling coins to take profits. However, large holders of SOL have not sold coins for more than $1 billion in a single day after March, November 2024, and January 2025, indicating that it has not yet reached the top.
Overall, SOL investors' mentality is becoming more stable; they are not panicking when they lose, nor are they in a hurry to sell when they profit, which lays the foundation for it to break out independently. However, SOL is currently still affected by Bitcoin's volatility, and as long as Bitcoin is fine, one can assess SOL's future trends by watching the movements of large holders.
