"CPI data is like the 'barometer' of the crypto circle, and tonight's performance may determine whether investors make a profit or a loss!"

Why has CPI data become the "focus" of the crypto circle?

A key fact is that the current rise and fall of the crypto market is no longer simply dominated by "technical aspects". The Fed's interest rate hike or rate cut expectations, and the tightness of dollar liquidity, are the real "dominant factors". CPI is an important reference for the Fed's decision - higher data means that inflationary pressures remain, and the Fed may postpone rate cuts; lower data indicates that inflation has eased, and the market will expect rate cuts, thereby boosting market sentiment.

However, tonight's CPI data is more special because its credibility has been questioned:

- Trump's related actions have raised market concerns: He fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and replaced him with his own people, making the market wonder if the data will be "manipulated". Morgan Stanley also said: "If the credibility of official data is damaged, all assets may need to be repriced!"

- Statistical methods have been adjusted: Due to funding problems, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reduced the collection of CPI data in some cities and switched to "estimation" (interpolation). Bank of America estimates that this estimation may produce an error of 0.02% (1-2 basis points). In the inflation-sensitive period, this error is enough to trigger large market fluctuations.

How should the crypto circle respond to the 3 possible directions of tonight's CPI data?

Scenario 1: CPI lower than expected (inflation cooling)

- Fed action: The probability of a rate cut in September will increase significantly (the current market expectation has reached 91.5%), the dollar may depreciate, and risk assets represented by cryptocurrencies are expected to rise collectively.

- Crypto circle reaction: Bitcoin may break the historical high of 123,000 and launch an attack on 130,000; Ethereum (ETH) may test the resistance level of $4,500; altcoins (such as SOL, AVAX) may see a rebound, with gains possibly exceeding BTC.

- Response suggestion: In this case, you can appropriately chase more, but it is not appropriate to be fully invested. Because cooling inflation may weaken Bitcoin's "digital gold" attribute, but the expectation of loose liquidity will dominate the rise. However, be wary of profit-taking within 1 hour after the data is released, and avoid chasing highs.

Scenario 2: CPI meets expectations (2.8% year-on-year)

- Fed action: September rate cut expectations may remain, but the market may react mildly due to "familiarity".

- Crypto circle reaction: BTC may fluctuate in the 118,000-123,000 range, and altcoins will diverge (strong currencies continue to rise, and weak currencies will rebound).

- Response suggestion: It is suitable for swing trading, and it is not appropriate to be greedy. This "plain" data can easily make traders impulsive, but the medium-term trend (such as the rising cycle after the Bitcoin halving) has not changed, and the oscillation period may be an opportunity to buy on dips.

Scenario 3: CPI higher than expected (inflation stickiness)

- Fed action: Rate cut expectations may be delayed, and some people may even suspect that the Fed will "stand still", the dollar will strengthen, and risk assets may be sold off.

- Crypto circle reaction: BTC may test the support level of 115,000; ETH may fall back below $4,000; altcoins may fall sharply (such as MEME coins may be cut in half).

- Response suggestion: This situation is riskier, but it may also be an opportunity to "buy the dip". The options market shows that a large number of hedging positions are concentrated in the put range of BTC 115,000-118,000. If it falls below this range, it may trigger programmed selling, but $115,000 is a key support level (on-chain data shows that a large number of long-term holders enter the market at this price). If it falls to this position, don't panic, consider building a position in batches.

What is the current market situation in the crypto circle?

- Active retail entry: 360,000 new BTC addresses added in a single day, indicating that ordinary investors are highly enthusiastic and market sentiment is relatively optimistic.

- Institutions quietly increase positions: Cryptocurrency ETFs had a net inflow of $571 million last week, and the market withstood the pressure of "large-scale selling", showing structural strength.

- The options market expects strong fluctuations: BTC put options are piled up in the 115,000-118,000 range, reflecting increased hedging demand, and the implied volatility (IV) has risen, indicating that the market expects large fluctuations tonight.

How to operate tonight? 3 practical strategies for reference!

Time node: CPI data is scheduled to be released at 20:30 Beijing time, and the market volatility may surge by more than 50% one hour before and after. It is recommended to reduce positions 10 minutes in advance and then take action after the data is released.

Hedge strategy:

- If you hold BTC long positions, you can buy put options below 118,000, costing about 2,000 yuan/piece, which can effectively hedge against "black swan" risks.

- If you want to "bet" on volatility, you can buy a Straddle option, such as buying a call and put option at 122,000 at the same time, costing about 5,000 yuan/piece. If the volatility rises sharply, you may get more than 3 times the return.

Trend trading:

- CPI lower than expected: You can chase more BTC/ETH, focusing on SOL (high volatility, may rise more than 20%).

- CPI higher than expected: Reduce positions by 50% and switch to holding stablecoins (USDC/USDT). Wait until the $115,000 support level has been tested before making a decision.

Summary: Is tonight the key node for profit or loss?

- Data lower than expected: Bitcoin may start a new round of rising, and $130,000 is not far away.

- Data higher than expected: In the short term, it faces downward pressure, but $115,000 may be a "golden pit", with opportunities to buy on dips.

In the long run, if the credibility of CPI data continues to decline, Bitcoin's allocation value as a "non-political asset" may be systematically enhanced.

Finally, a reminder: You need to remain rational in tonight's operations, control leverage, and preset stop losses. CPI is just the "prelude", and Thursday's PPI data and Fed officials' speeches are the "main event" - this wave of market is just beginning!#CPI数据来袭 $