Crypto Market Weekly Update August 4th-10th, 2025
During the week of August 4–10, 2025, the cryptocurrency market underwent a complex but ultimately constructive period of price action. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) both advanced from key support levels into major high-timeframe supply zones, defying expectations for deeper pullbacks. On-chain data reinforced the view that the week’s retracements were structurally healthy rather than signaling broader trend reversals, with long-term holder supply remaining near all-time highs, sustained net exchange outflows, and BTC prices holding above the short-term holder cost basis. Exchange reserves for both BTC and ETH fell to multi-year lows, while OTC desk inventories continued to compress, underscoring a tight supply backdrop despite the pullback.
Macro conditions provided additional tailwinds, as U.S. labor market weakness sharply increased the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate cut — a development broadly supportive for risk assets, including crypto. Meanwhile, altcoin market capitalization surged alongside persistent BTC dominance weakness, signaling an extended rotation into the broader market.
The week closed with BTC and ETH both pressing into major supply zones after bypassing anticipated deeper pullbacks. On-chain data confirmed structural health, with strong accumulation, limited long-term holder distribution.
Macro conditions shifted decisively toward potential Fed easing in September, enhancing the probability of sustained bullish momentum if technical breakouts occur.
Forward Watchpoints:
• BTC breakout above $124K → Macro targets at $141K–$150K.
• ETH breakout above $4,750 → Expansion toward uncharted highs.
• BTC.D at 57.21% → Breakdown would confirm extended altcoin cycle.
• Fed’s September 17 meeting → Potential catalyst for major risk-on flows.
Until then, the market remained at a critical decision point: absorb supply for continuation — or
revert to liquidity sweeps before the next leg higher.