1. Fundamentals: Tariff delay and inflation suspense intertwine, the market enters a wait-and-see period

  1. China-US tariffs paused for 90 days: Short-term risk aversion sentiment cools
    Both China and the US have once again paused the implementation of a 24% tariff policy for 90 days. This move temporarily avoids systemic risks brought by escalating trade frictions, boosting risk appetite, especially benefiting the sentiment repair of BTC, ETH, and high Beta altcoins. However, it should be noted that this is only a 'temporary window', and the long-term trend still depends on whether negotiations can be transformed into a long-term agreement, as well as the actual direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

  2. Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations cool slightly, CPI becomes a key variable
    Bank of America warns that 'inflation exceeds target + tariff increases may weaken the reason for the September rate cut', CME 'FedWatch' shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped from 93.6% to 85.9%. The upcoming CPI data becomes a 'double-edged sword' for the market: if the data is too hot, rate cut expectations may be further undermined; if too cold, it will strengthen concerns about economic slowdown — both scenarios may put pressure on the US stock market, which in turn transmits to the cryptocurrency market.

2. BTC Technical aspect: High-level pullbacks are normal digestion, 118K support becomes key in the short term

Signal interpretation after breakthrough pullback

Yesterday, BTC surged and then fell back, forming a long upper shadow bearish candle, showing characteristics of 'breakthrough testing + pullback confirmation': significant volume was seen when breaking 120K, and volume contracted during the pullback phase, indicating that high-level selling pressure has not been released on a large scale, constituting a healthy digestion pattern. The technical perspective shows three major signals:

  • Moving average golden cross consolidation: The 7-day moving average crosses above the 14/30-day moving averages forming a bullish arrangement, with clear short-term trend support;

  • MACD momentum recovery: The histogram turns positive, the fast and slow lines cross and diverge, bullish momentum is accumulating;

  • Support and resistance: Below 118K (starting point from Sunday) and 116K (last week's platform support) form a double defense, breaking below 116K requires risk vigilance; above 120.5K-121.5K is short-term resistance, and a significant breakout may target 135K.

4-hour rhythm and daily strategy

Currently, after five consecutive bearish candles on the 4-hour line, there is a slight rebound at 118K, and this position is effectively supported. Focus for the day:

  • Support zone: 118K-117K (pullback confirmation point), stabilization can lead to low buying;

  • Resistance zone: 120.5K-121.5K, if met with resistance, can short temporarily, stop loss reference at 122K.

3. ETH Technical aspect: High-level consolidation does not disrupt the trend, 4200 becomes the dividing line for strong and weak

Adjustment characteristics of trend acceleration period

ETH daily line enters a high-level consolidation after a strong rally, the two days of sideways movement is a normal rhythm, and the upward channel remains intact as long as it does not break the moving average support. Core characteristics include:

  • Moving averages are steeply diverging: Short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement and the angle is steep, consistent with characteristics of a trend acceleration period;

  • Volume is not showing exhaustion: The rising wave is accompanied by increased volume, and the energy near the high point hasn’t contracted drastically, indicating that the bullish structure is solid;

  • Pullback risk is controllable: The cumulative increase over the past few months has been significant, but before a major drop, it needs to go through a high-level sideways distribution phase, with no waterfall drop risk in the short term.

Daily support and operational plan

The 4-hour line formed a low point at 4150, with a dip in the early morning lifting the low point, and no downward signal appeared. Focus for the day:

  • Support zone: 4240-4200 (MA10 daily moving average + recent consolidation platform), if broken, it may test 4150;

  • Resistance zone: 4340-4380, if broken, will continue the strong momentum, targeting 4500.

4. Altcoins: Pullback over 10% without stop-loss signals, patiently wait for bottom-buying signals

Altcoins have seen significant pullbacks during the market adjustment, especially the MEME sector has declined significantly, closing in the red for three consecutive days, with an overall decline exceeding 10%. Currently, three major characteristics are present:

  • Mainstream coins blood-sucking effect: Funds in the market are concentrated in BTC, ETH, while high Beta altcoins are continuously drained, and buying confidence is shrinking;

  • Lack of stop-loss signals: There are no effective stop-loss signals from a technical perspective, and the daily line has not formed long lower shadow lines or other stabilization signals;

  • Mainly a wait-and-see strategy: do not chase mainstream coins, do not blindly buy bottom altcoins, wait for two major signals: ① daily line shows a long lower shadow line with volume; ② MEME sector rebounds over 5% in 24 hours with increased volume.

Future opportunities need to wait for mainstream coins' growth rate to slow down and trading volume to decline, prioritize layouts in 'medium market cap + clearly defined on-chain hotspots' altcoin sectors, avoiding premature entry to bear adjustment risks.

Risk warning: Market sentiment is sensitive before the CPI data release, cryptocurrency volatility intensifies, the above analysis is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, entering the market requires strict position control.#CPI数据来袭