In the cryptocurrency market, theories can develop as quickly as dust devils, and recently, a particular hypothesis has gained traction — that the famous four-year cycle of bitcoin may have come to an end. Proponents of the 'the cycle is dead' trend argue that the model is breaking down, citing changes such as increased institutional participation, the emergence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), moves towards clearer regulation, and the steady accumulation by governments and large corporations.
The end of an era? Cryptocurrency advocates claim bitcoin's famous cycle has 'died'
Since Bitcoin's inception, its native currency has followed a familiar four-year rhythm driven by the halving event — an event that halves the mining reward every four years. This shift has often triggered a chain reaction: a bull run, a sharp drop into bear market territory, and then a gradual recovery before the next halving begins the process anew. In the past, this cycle has pushed bitcoin’s price higher after each halving before a significant drop, but this time, many believe the pattern may not repeat.
Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, told CNBC earlier this week that he believes the cycle has ended. “It won’t officially end until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will see, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over,” Hougan detailed. The debate has also spilled over onto social platforms like Reddit and X. On X, the account Simplifying Stocks, CPA stated, “The 4-year cycle of Bitcoin is dead. Why?”
The X account then offered its own response:
“ETFs: buy. Retail: buy. Institutions: buy. Treasury companies: buy. Government: buy. 401k: about to buy. Pension funds: about to buy. Higher is SIGNIFICANT.”
An increasing group of influencers, analysts, and media argue that the cycle is outdated, pointing to the evolution of bitcoin into a mainstream institutional asset. While some still disagree, many support this idea with data and sound arguments. Some predict the “prolonged bear market” is still far off, and one user confidently stated, “We will go far until Q2/Q4 2026, depending on factors like global liquidity.”
Conversely, the X account Crypto Dad opposes the popular notion that bitcoin's four-year cycle has ended due to institutional acceptance.
In a detailed post, Crypto Dad argued that the cycle is not just a product of halving events as many think, but instead is deeply tied to the global liquidity cycle — a pattern running on a roughly four to five-year cadence that was reestablished by the 2008 financial crisis. According to the post, bitcoin's past all-time highs aligned with global liquidity peaks, not just halving events, indicating that “QE1–QE3, ZIRP” fueled the 2009–2013 bull market, the spreading of QE for 2014–2017, and QE during the pandemic for 2018–2021.
The post concludes with:
“Halving is the spark. Global liquidity is oxygen. The 4-year cadence does not stem from the Bitcoin code — it arises from the monetary reshaping after 2008. If you only look at halving, you will miss the real clock.”
On July 23, crypto influencer Marty Party told 226,000 followers on X, “Bitcoin Basics 2025—The 4-year cycle is long gone. The 2020 bear market was orchestrated by the government in an attempt to [try to] stop bitcoin. It failed. Bitcoin is absorbing fiat at least until 2050. The new administration has agreed. The system is shifting to hard currency. This is a good thing. It will solve all our problems.”
The ongoing debate not only reflects a starkly different view of the data — it highlights a change in how market participants define the future of bitcoin. With narratives now shaped as much by macroeconomic policy as by blockchain mechanics, the community faces a challenge: adapting to evolving signals or clinging to a model formed in the asset's early years, when it was less organized.
As debates heat up, the market itself may well render the final judgment. Whether driven by liquidity flows, halving sparks, or new layers of acceptance, bitcoin’s price action in the coming years may speak louder than any theory. Until then, traders and analysts remain in a waiting state, watching to confirm that one of the oldest patterns in the crypto world has indeed ended.
