The Federal Reserve has two key points:

Vice Chair Bowman directly stated that there will be a rate cut in September, with three cuts expected this year, each by 25 basis points.

This is more aggressive than Powell's previous statement of 'at most 2 times this year' and aligns with JPMorgan's view: the trade war will not drive up inflation, and a rate cut in the dollar is only a matter of time. The strength of A-shares today is precisely because of this, as expectations for foreign capital inflow have suddenly been ignited.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has already started looking for Powell's successor.

Trump has long been displeased with Powell, whose term doesn't expire until May 2026, and is now looking for someone, which clearly indicates—finding someone more willing to cut rates. As a result, the expectations for rate cuts next year have become more stable.

Putting these two things together, the expectations for rate cuts have been thoroughly opened up. This year will be gradual, but next year may see aggressive cuts. In this context, there is no reason for the stock market and commodities to be conservative. $ETH $