Cryptocurrency analyst VisionPulsed has outlined three specific market conditions that must align before Dogecoin can achieve the long-predicted $1 target, currently trading at $0.22. The analyst warns that if Ethereum does not surpass its 2021 highs, with halving cycle support and global liquidity continuing to expand, the parabolic rise of this meme coin may be unlikely.

Prerequisite Conditions of the Market Prevent Dogecoin's Parabolic Moves

VisionPulsed has presented a data-driven analysis showing that Dogecoin's path to $1 faces significant hurdles. The analyst emphasizes that Ethereum must first clearly surpass previous highs while the timing of the halving cycle and global liquidity conditions remain favorable.

Bitcoin's dominance has recently increased again, overshadowing the prospect of a broad altcoin rally, which would benefit Dogecoin. Ethereum has shown improvement by reaching new highs above $4,000 but remains trapped below two significant resistance levels from 2021.

"Once ETH surpasses this high, ETH has officially entered a bullish market," VisionPulsed notes. The analyst identifies these final technical barriers as the May 2021 high and the all-time high from the same year.

Dogecoin's recent price volatility has raised additional concerns. VisionPulsed highlighted a "clear top-tail candle" that formed after traders rushed into positions, describing it as "definitely not the candle you want to see."

The analyst compared this formation to a similar pattern that occurred before a local reversal, warning against interpreting short-selling as an indicator of a sustainable trend.

Historical Cycle Only Reaches the Window of August 2025

Timing plays a crucial role in VisionPulsed's analytical framework. The 486-day mark since Bitcoin's most recent halving in history has marked significant turning points in previous market cycles.

"We are rapidly approaching what is considered the final bullish thrust of 2021… 486 days until halving," the analyst explains. Both of the most recent cycles experienced significant corrections, followed by final price increases during this timeframe.

With a reference point of April 19, 2024, August 18, 2025, is considered a similar threshold for the current cycle. VisionPulsed considers this date a reference point of contextual significance rather than a definite outcome.

"Nothing is guaranteed," the analyst emphasizes, acknowledging the limitations of identifying historical patterns. This framework provides structure for expectations while recognizing that market dynamics may differ from past behavior.

Liquidity Conditions Remain Supportive but Not Decisive

The global M2 money supply expansion continues to support risk assets, although VisionPulsed warns against over-reliance on this indicator. The analyst notes that "everyone" is watching M2 data, which currently suggests ongoing bullish potential.

However, historical precedent shows that M2 can remain high even as the cryptocurrency market enters bearish phases. Previous cycles have demonstrated that the relationship between money supply growth and cryptocurrency performance is not everlasting.

"We will use it until it no longer works," VisionPulsed states, applying a pragmatic approach to liquidity analysis. This indicator provides supportive context but cannot independently guarantee sustained bullish market conditions.

The analysis framework views liquidity as a component of a three-part equation rather than an independent catalyst for Dogecoin's rise to $1.

Understanding Key Terms of the Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin Halving is a scheduled reduction in the supply of new Bitcoin, occurring approximately every four years, often associated with significant price cycles. Market dominance measures a cryptocurrency's market capitalization as a percentage of the total cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin's dominance indicates whether institutional capital favors this leading digital asset over alternatives.

M2 money supply represents a broad measure of the amount of money in circulation, including cash, demand deposits, and easily convertible currencies. Cryptocurrency analysts often relate M2 expansion to the performance of risk assets, as increased liquidity typically flows into speculative investments.

Altseason describes a period when alternative cryptocurrencies significantly outperform Bitcoin, often occurring in the latter stages of a bullish market when investor risk appetite peaks.

Expected Trading Range Despite Bullish Potential

VisionPulsed allows for significant volatility in Dogecoin's current consolidation pattern without expecting structural changes. The analyst suggests that moving down to 30 cents could still occur within the trading range rather than being the start of a final bullish run.

Transforming this oscillating behavior into a sustainable bullish trend requires the multi-asset correlation described throughout the analysis. Individual candle formations or isolated breakouts cannot replace the general market confirmation.

Dogecoin is currently trading in conditions that VisionPulsed describes as "wide, chaotic accumulation," a bottoming process that may include false breakouts in both directions. Even in positive scenarios, the failure of broader conditions could cause further declines before any real altcoin season emerges.

The analyst argues that sustainable progress toward the $1 level depends on systematically meeting three key conditions rather than a sudden price surge.

In Summary

VisionPulsed's analysis establishes a clear framework for Dogecoin's potential rise to $1, requiring Ethereum to surpass its 2021 highs, with the halving cycle support around August 2025 and global liquidity continuing to expand. Without these conditions, this meme coin may remain stuck in its current trading range despite periodic volatility.